FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas has work to do in conference play to get back in the bubble picture for the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Despite ending their non-conference slate with a 10-2 record and currently being tied for the second-most wins in the SEC, the Razorbacks are No. 89 in the NET rankings through Tuesday’s games.
A metric that replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is calculated using a variety of factors, including game results - with consideration given to location of the game and strength of opponent - and net efficiency ratings.
It isn’t the end-all, be-all, but the NET is the primary metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
With the pandemic wiping out the 2020 tournament and severely altering schedules in 2021, there isn’t a very large frame of reference for just how big of a factor the NET is in picking teams for the big dance.
In 2019, though, the lowest-ranked at-large team was St. John’s, which made the “First Four” with at No. 73, while Minnesota bypassed the play-in game and earned a 10 seed with a No. 61 NET ranking.
Last year, when shortened and restricted non-conference schedules impacted the rankings, Michigan State and Wichita State were chosen for the First Four at No. 70 and No. 72, respectively, in the NET.
The Razorbacks are well short of those benchmarks as they enter SEC play, largely due to an incredibly weak non-conference schedule.
Eight of Arkansas’ wins are currently in Quadrant 4 and only three of those are even within 30 spots of moving up into Quadrant 3. The result is a No. 307 non-conference strength of schedule, which is one of the worst among high-major programs. Ole Miss (No. 328) is the only SEC team with a weaker non-conference slate.
The other two wins are Q2, with Cincinnati (No. 55) sitting just outside of the top-50 range needed to be a Q1 win for the Razorbacks. Kansas State is at No. 87 and must remain in the top 100 for that win to maintain its Q2 status.
Playing Oklahoma in Tulsa has been Arkansas’ lone Q1 opportunity and it was blown out 88-66. The Sooners are just barely inside the top 50, as well, sitting at No. 41. That loss led to the Razorbacks falling 25 spots to No. 67 in the NET.
Their 89-81 loss to Hofstra over the weekend resulted in a similar drop, as they fell 22 spots to No. 90. It was also the first Q3 loss of the Eric Musselman era, as Arkansas went 16-0 in those games his first two seasons.
Before climbing back up to its current spot at No. 89 following Tuesday’s win over Elon, Arkansas actually bottomed out at No. 91.
Luckily for the Razorbacks, though, they’ll have plenty of chances to bulk up their resume in SEC play.
It will likely change as the conference beats up on itself, but more than half of Arkansas’ 18 SEC games - 10, to be exact - are currently Q1 opportunities, beginning with next week’s conference opener at Mississippi State.
The Razorbacks also have three more Q2 opportunities, including the Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup with West Virginia on Jan. 29. Five SEC games are currently Q3 and only one - a home matchup vs. Missouri - is Q4.
Arkansas' Non-Conference Opponents
Mercer: No. 186 (+23 spots since initial NET)
Gardner-Webb: No. 213 (-51 spots)
Northern Iowa: No. 171 (+75 spots)
Kansas State: No. 87 (-18 spots)
Cincinnati: No. 55 (-10 spots)
Penn: No. 236 (-13 spots)
UCA: No. 342 (-6 spots)
Little Rock: No. 334 (-24 spots)
Charlotte: No. 164 (+37 spots)
Oklahoma: No. 41 (-7 spots)
Hofstra: No. 93 (-2 spots)
Elon: No. 324 (+19 spots)
West Virginia: No. 45 (+28 spots)
NET Rankings of SEC Teams
3. LSU* (-1)
9. Tennessee* (+2)
10. Auburn (+6)
25. Alabama (-10)
30. Kentucky (+9)
38. Mississippi State* (+11)
60. Florida (-38)
65. Texas A&M* (-7)
89. Arkansas (-45)
99. Vanderbilt (-15)
113. South Carolina (+9)
136. Ole Miss (-10)
201. Georgia (+7)
238. Missouri* (+40)
*scheduled to play Arkansas twice in the regular season
