Post-open week update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' last 6 games in 2020
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FAYETTEVILLE -- Despite being one of six SEC teams that were off last week, Arkansas' odds in ESPN's Football Power Index were still impacted by the four games played across the conference.
Most notably, the Razorbacks are now a slight favorite against Tennessee on Nov. 7, according to the FPI. They have a 51.8 percent chance to win that game.
It is just the third time the FPI has favored Arkansas in any game at any point this season. The good news for the Razorbacks is they won each of the previous two.
They were a slight favorite over Mississippi State (50.5%) shortly before the start of the season before dropping to a relatively heavy underdog after the Bulldogs beat LSU and then they were given a 57.4 percent chance to beat Ole Miss the week leading up to that game.
Arkansas' dramatic increase in odds against Tennessee - up 20.5 percentage points over the last three weeks - is likely the result of the Volunteers losing their last three games in addition to the Razorbacks' solid play.
The other five games left on the schedule saw Arkansas' odds decrease. Three of them - Texas A&M, Florida and Alabama - were small, but two of them were rather significant.
Fresh of a dominant win over South Carolina, LSU now has a 78.3 percent chance to beat the Razorbacks - up 8.2 percentage points from last week.
That result, coupled with its own win over Kentucky, likely contributed to Missouri's chances of beating Arkansas increasing to 60.1 percent. Previously, the game was a near toss-up, according to the FPI.
The movement in those games means the Razorbacks' most likely record is 3-7 again, at 36.5 percent. It's followed closely by 4-6, though, as 32.7 percent.
The FPI's complete game-by-game projections - as well as the record projections calculated with those percentages - can be found in the charts below. Under them is a chart showing Arkansas' chances of finishing .500 or better.
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NEW USERS | RETURNING USERS
| Game | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
Oct. 31 - at Texas A&M |
22.6% |
-1.7% |
|
Nov. 7 - Tennessee |
51.8% |
+3.6% |
|
Nov. 14 - at Florida |
12.5% |
-0.2% |
|
Nov. 21 - LSU |
21.7% |
-8.2% |
|
Nov. 28 - at Missouri |
39.9% |
-8.7% |
|
Dec. 5 - Alabama |
5.2% |
-1.3% |
| Record | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
8-2 |
0.0066% |
-0.0074% |
|
7-3 |
0.23% |
-0.18% |
|
6-4 |
2.62% |
-1.32% |
|
5-5 |
13.36% |
-3.49% |
|
4-6 |
32.74% |
-1.78% |
|
3-7 |
36.49% |
+3.75% |
|
2-8 |
14.56% |
+3.03% |
