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Just a year removed from working with a lawn care business to make some money and stay busy during the pandemic, Peyton Stovall could be on the verge of a seven-figure payday.
A consensus top-50 prospect, the Arkansas signee is a projected high pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, with some mocks placing him in the first round, which starts at 6 p.m. CT Sunday on ESPN and MLB Network.
Stovall plans to watch the top 36 picks with his immediate family and a couple of close friends, but there’s no guarantee he’ll hear his name called. Despite the possibility of a signing bonus in the $2 million range, there’s a chance the middle infielder turns down the money to play for the Razorbacks.
It will be “a nerve-wracking and stressful day,” Stovall told HawgBeat this week. The same could be said for head coach Dave Van Horn and Arkansas fans, as they’ll be sweating out the draft to see if a team will meet his asking price and take him on Day 1 - or early on Day 2, which features Rounds 2-10 and begins at noon CT Monday.
Usually when a signee is going to command such a large signing bonus, it is a foregone conclusion he won’t make it to campus, but that might not necessarily be the case for Stovall.
“People around here will tell you and Coach Van Horn knows this: I honor my commitments and I’m very loyal to my commitments,” Stovall said. “It’s going to take some money to buy me out of Arkansas, knowing how good they are (and) the education.
“Me and my family are huge on education, so it’s going to be tough to buy me out of Arkansas. I’ve always been kind of a ‘college-first, unless…’ guy this whole entire process, so Sunday we’ll see how that works out.”
According to those around him in Haughton, La., Stovall is genuine in his interest in playing with the Razorbacks. While he isn’t sure exactly how it’ll play out, Haughton High baseball coach Glenn Maynor said he wouldn’t be surprised if Stovall is in Fayetteville next year.
“He loves the University of Arkansas,” Maynor said. “I’ve had a lot of conversations with Coach Van Horn. I think he could very well end up at Arkansas. He loves the campus, he loves the program, he loves the coaches and he’s maintained a good relationship with them. I could see it going either way.”
Even Van Horn, who has talked with him quite a bit leading up to the draft, seems to think he might make it to campus.
In a clip shared on Twitter by the Hog Pod, the veteran coach reiterated what Stovall said about education being important to him and his family, mentioning that he’s a straight-A student with a great ACT score. He also said he isn’t trying to force anything on him while still pitching him the idea of playing college baseball.
“He wants to go to school, but he doesn’t want to regret anything,” Van Horn said in an interview with the Hog Pod. “I told him, ‘The only thing you’re going to have to regret is if you don’t go to college because you’re going to get a chance to play pro ball again and you’re going to make your money.’”
Not typically one to talk about players before they actually get to school, Van Horn hasn’t been shy about the impact Stovall could have at Arkansas. He referred to him several times during Swatters Club meetings during the season and even dropped his name in the end-of-season press conference when talking about newcomers who could start as freshmen.
Stovall told HawgBeat that he really appreciated the honesty and openness Van Horn has displayed throughout the process, which has helped them form a great relationship.
“It means the world to me just knowing how much he believes in me as a player and a person,” Stovall said. “Mine and Coach Van Horn’s relationship has been really, really strong. For him to be able to say those things about me means a ton to me.”
Still, as strong as that relationship may be, a lot of money is at stake with Stovall’s decision. The last five picks of the first round have an average slot value of just over $2.5 million. The next seven picks - Competitive Balance Round A - are each above $2 million and the slot values don’t dip below $1 million until pick No. 67.
Teams do not have to agree to a signing bonus equal to the pick’s slot value, but they do lose that amount from their bonus pool if they fail to sign a draftee taken in the top 10 rounds. That means Stovall will almost certainly sign a professional contract - likely with a seven-figure bonus - if he’s taken in the first two days of the draft.
Maynor acknowledged that it would be hard to tell an 18-year-old kid not to take that kind of money, but he also made sure to point out how closely he followed Arkansas’ postseason run as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
“During the regionals and super regionals, he was living and dying with every pitch that Arkansas had,” Maynor said. “To me, that doesn’t seem like a kid that’s got his eyes turned to where he’s for sure going to the MLB.
“After every win Arkansas had, he tweeted out something about ‘pig sooie’ or something, so that’s what I’m saying. To me, that doesn’t look like a kid that’s saying, ‘I’m going pro.’ But then again, I know he’s not sitting there saying, ‘I’m not going pro.’”
Something else that could work in the Razorbacks’ favor is the new NCAA legislation that allows student-athletes to profit off their name, image and likeness (NIL). It probably wouldn’t approach the potential signing bonus, but Stovall would be eligible to sign endorsement deals while playing at Arkansas.
While he’s glad the NCAA has changed its stance on NIL and thinks it’d be “pretty cool” to benefit from it it he ends up at school, it doesn’t sound like it will make much of an impact on Stovall’s decision.
“I’ve had some phone calls about it with my advisor and we’ve talked about it,” Stovall said. “But ultimately, that’s not going to change my decision a whole lot as far as going to college or signing.”
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Scouting Report
The reason Van Horn has been so open about Stovall’s ability to contribute immediately as a freshman is because he’s seen what professional scouts are drooling over. Arguably the best left-handed high school bat in the draft, his “hit tool” is off the charts, Maynor said.
MLB Pipeline, which has him at No. 29 on its list of the top 250 draft prospects, gives Stovall a 60 grade, on a 20-80 scale, in hitting. That is matched only by Marcelo Mayer, the possible No. 1 overall pick, in the high school ranks and just a few of the top college hitters earned that grade.
In the era of three true outcomes - strikeouts, walks and home runs - and a spike in strikeouts across all levels, Stovall said he wants to be part of the movement that reverses the current trend.
“Nowadays, I feel like guys are starting to be okay with striking out,” Stovall said. “I’ve never been a guy that’s been okay with striking out. I get very hard on myself when I do strike out, so…I take a lot of pride into not striking out and stuff like that.”
