Same Battle for the Boot, very different Arkansas, LSU
Just 12 months ago, the Arkansas Razorbacks were reeling–crashing and burning their way to a second straight 2-10 season after firing their second-year head coach. At the exact same time, just 531 miles south, the LSU Tigers were 10-0 and heading towards a perfect season, culminating in a decisive national championship victory over Clemson.
Now, Arkansas is 3-4 (4-3, yeah, yeah I know) and the Tigers are coming to Fayetteville with a 2-3 record–losses to Mississippi State, Missouri and Auburn.
We all know how Arkansas has managed a turnaround with the leadership of Sam Pittman, Barry Odom, Kendal Briles, Feleipe Franks and more, but how has LSU gone from the top of the mountain to the bottom of the SEC West?
For starters, the Tigers tied the record for most players taken in a single draft in 2020. Thirteen players departed for the NFL. Coordinators Dave Aranda and Joe Brady bounced too.
No team had less offensive production returning for the 2020 season than LSU. Despite that, the Tigers' biggest issue to start the year wasn't the offense. They put up 31, 41, 41 and 52 points up in their first four games, respectively. Quarterback Myles Brennan, replacing Heisman winner Joe Burrow, threw for just 60% completions but he had a decent 11-3 touchdown-turnover ratio.
The biggest problem was, and has been, LSU's defense. TigerDetails reporter Jerit Roser gave HawgBeat this incredible stat this week: "Opponents have gained 1,721 yards on 62 'big plays,' which amounts to 71.9 percent of the total yardage allowed by LSU on just 18.6 percent of its defensive plays."
Given that stat, it's apparent that the defense, featuring former Rivals No.1 in the 2019 class Derek Stingley, has played well the majority of the time, but they get killed by occasional busted coverages and give up a lot of chunk yardage–which is kind of perfect for the Razorbacks.
The Tigers defense has picked off five passes, three by young corner Elias Ricks, and recovered six forced fumbles. Franks, known to take a whollopping sack or two or four, will need to watch out for the LSU pass rush. Lead by linebacker BJ Ojulari with 4 sacks, the LSU defense grades 6th in the nation is pass rushing, according to PFF. They can be stopped however, as proven by the Auburn offensive line three weeks ago.
The Razorbacks won't be facing Brennan for LSU on Saturday as he was ruled out due to injury in October. Freshmen quarterbacks TJ Finley and Max Johnson have both played for the Tigers since, with varying success.
A Louisiana native, Finley got the start against South Carolina, throwing 17 of 21 completions with three touchdowns (one rushing) and one pick. Securing the win, Finley secured his second start against Auburn. However, the Tigers limited Finley to 13 completions on 24 attempts, picked off two passes and sacked him twice.
Checking out his passing chart, Finley is just 3 of 11 outside the hash marks while he's 27 of 33 in the middle of the field. He's completed three deep passes of 20+ yards, surprising Pittman in his film study.
"He’s got a much stronger arm than what I thought," Pittman said. "From watching him the first couple of games, really I was more concerned about him taking the ball down and running. Obviously there’s concern there, but he has a much liver arm as you continue to watch him than what I earlier thought. So the guy can hurt you both throwing and running."
Finley has amassed 22 net yards on 13 rushes with a touchdown and a long of nine yards. Backup Johnson has 24 yards on 9 carries with a long run of 12 yards.
LSU's lead backs, John Emery and Tyrion Davis-Price, split carries and have 245 and 246 yards a piece. Top receiving target is Terrace Marshall who was third in receiving yards for the Tigers last season. He's got 31 catches for 540 yards and he's hands-down the top endzone target with nine touchdowns. The Hogs will need to watchout for mismatches with 6-foot-5 tight end Arik Gilbert as well, he has 259 yards and two touchdowns on 22 catches–the team's second-highest total.
With the tables not quite turned, but certainly rotated, the Razorbacks were favorites according to Vegas entering the week. Unfortunately, the odds haven't stacked up to an even fight for the Hogs Saturday at 11 and the line has shifted accordingly (LSU -1.5). Though we don't know specifics or numbers, Arkansas has been depleted to "thin" levels, according to Pittman, due to positive tests and contract tracing in the program.
Stay locked on HawgBeat Saturday morning as we bring you live updates from pregame warmups.