College students, get a year of HawgBeat coverage for just $11.95! Request details via email from your school account (.edu) to andrewhutchinson413 (at) gmail (dot) com.
With one game remaining, Arkansas has already clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament and actually has an outside shot at winning a share of the regular-season title.
The latter would require a major upset, as Auburn is heavily favored in a home game against South Carolina on Saturday. That said, the Razorbacks know they’re at least not playing until Friday next week in Tampa, Fla.
Who it’ll face in the first round is much more difficult to determine because six teams are within one game of each other for seeds 5-10, but the scenarios for Arkansas’ seed are relatively straight forward.
Here is what it takes for each seed to happen, as well as how likely it is to actually happen based on projections by KenPom, BartTorvik and ESPN’s BPI…
1 seed: Arkansas beats Tennessee, Auburn loses to South Carolina
First game: 11 a.m. CT Friday (ESPN)
KenPom odds: 2.24%
BartTorvik odds: 2.1%
BPI odds: 0.71%
In this scenario, Arkansas and Auburn — and potentially Kentucky — would finish tied atop the SEC standings and share the regular-season title. However, the Razorbacks would get the No. 1 seed because of tiebreakers. They beat the Tigers 80-76 in overtime on Feb. 8 and beat the Wildcats 75-73 on Feb. 26.
2 seed: Arkansas beats Tennessee, Auburn beats South Carolina
First game: 5 p.m. CT Friday (SEC Network)
KenPom odds: 25.76%
BartTorvik odds: 27.9%
BPI odds: 15.89%
Even if Arkansas beats Tennessee, it would remain a game behind Auburn in the standings if the Tigers beat South Carolina. However, the Razorbacks would still own the tiebreaker over Kentucky even if the Wildcats beat Florida to finish with the same conference record.
3 seed: Arkansas loses to Tennessee, Kentucky loses to Florida
First game: 7 p.m. CT Friday (SEC Network)
KenPom odds: 21.6%
BartTorvik odds: 25.9%
BPI odds: 24.19%
A loss to Tennessee would put Arkansas behind the Volunteers by a game and behind Auburn by one or two games. The Razorbacks would also need Kentucky to lose to Florida to remain tied with the Wildcats in the standings — and they own that tiebreaker.
4 seed: Arkansas loses to Tennessee, Kentucky beats Florida
First game: 1 p.m. CT Friday (ESPN)
KenPom odds: 50.4%
BartTorvik odds: 44.1%
BPI odds: 59.21%
The worst-case scenario for Arkansas would be to lose to Tennessee and Kentucky also beat Florida. That would put the Razorbacks a game behind both the Volunteers and Wildcats and behind Auburn by one or two games.
