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Arkansas ends the regular season with a road trip to Texas A&M on Saturday.
Although alone in 10th place with a 7-11 conference record at the moment, the Razorbacks’ seed for next week’s SEC Tournament is still up in the air and depends on several other outcomes.
Before the 3:30 p.m. CT tipoff on the SEC Network, HawgBeat analyzed all of the possible scenarios for Saturday and found that Arkansas could finish with the No. 9, No. 10 or No. 11 seed.
Here is an explainer for each one, complete with their chances of happening, according to ESPN’s basketball Power Index:
If Arkansas beats Texas A&M…
…it would be the No. 9 seed if Alabama loses at Missouri (1:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network). That would create a tie for ninth place at 8-10 and the Razorbacks own the tiebreaker because of their 82-78 win in Tuscaloosa on Feb. 1. (ESPN BPI odds: 36.20%)
…it would be the No. 10 seed if Alabama beats Missouri. That would make the Crimson Tide 9-9, keeping them one game ahead of the Razorbacks. (ESPN BPI odds: 34.10%)
If Arkansas loses at Texas A&M…
…it would be the No. 10 seed if Missouri loses to Alabama and Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State (5:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network). That would maintain the Razorbacks’ current one-game lead over the Tigers and Rebels in the standings. (SEC BPI odds: 11.08%)
…it would be the No. 10 seed if Missouri beats Alabama and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State. That would create a three-way tie for 10th at 7-11 and the Razorbacks would own the tiebreaker. They went 2-1 against the other two teams, while the Tigers went 2-2 and the Rebels went 1-2. (ESPN BPI odds: 3.53%)
…it would be the No. 10 seed if Missouri loses to Alabama and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State. That would create a tie between the Razorbacks and Rebels for 10th at 7-11 - and bump the Tigers down to 12th at 6-12 - and the Razorbacks own the tiebreaker because of their 76-72 win in Oxford on Jan. 11. (ESPN BPI odds: 3.33%)
…and if Missouri beats Alabama and Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State to create a tie between the Razorbacks and Tigers for 10th at 7-11 - and bump the Rebels down to 12th at 6-12 - the seeding would depend on the following outcomes:
— If LSU finishes ahead of Auburn and Florida in the seeding, Arkansas would be the No. 10 seed because Arkansas has a win over LSU and Missouri lost its lone game against LSU. That requires LSU beating Georgia (1 p.m. CT, ESPN2) *AND* Auburn losing at Tennessee (11 a.m. CT, ESPN2) *AND* Florida losing to Kentucky (noon CT, CBS). (ESPN BPI odds: 1.80%)
— If Auburn or Florida finishes ahead of LSU in the seeding, Arkansas would be the No. 11 seed because Missouri has beaten Auburn and Florida, while the Razorbacks lost to Auburn and Florida. This is what would happen if any of those three outcomes don’t happen. (ESPN BPI odds: 9.96%)
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ESPN BPI Projections
No. 9 seed - 36.20%
No. 10 seed - 53.84%
No. 11 seed - 9.96%
The biggest difference between getting the No. 9 and No. 10 seed for Arkansas is when it would play its first game in Nashville.
As the No. 9 seed, the Razorbacks would play the No. 8 seed at noon CT in the first game Thursday. If they win that game, they’d face No. 1 seed Kentucky in their next game.
As the No. 10 seed, they’d play the No. 7 seed at 6 p.m. CT in the third game of the day. If they win that game, they’d face the No. 2 seed - which is still up in the air - on Friday.
If it slips to the No. 11 seed, though, Arkansas would have to play on the first day of the SEC Tournament - which has become known as “Wednesday Night Sadness.” It’d face No. 14 seed Vanderbilt at 8 p.m. CT Wednesday. That path to the semifinals would go through the No. 6 seed on Thursday and No. 3 seed on Friday.
Here are the complete SEC standings with one game remaining…

- SLOT
- EDGE
- S
- S
- TE
- DT
- NICK
- OT
- OT
- TE