SEC Tourney's potential impact on Arkansas' seed in the Big Dance
College Students, get a year of HawgBeat coverage for just $11.95. Request details via email from your school account (.edu) to nchavanelle@yahoo.com.
Not a subscriber? Subscribe for free for 30 days w/code HAWGS30
NEW USERS | RETURNING USERS
Before the world came to a screeching halt, Arkansas entered the 2020 SEC Tournament needing to do some work to secure its ticket to the big dance.
The Razorbacks easily beat Vanderbilt in the first round to improve to 20-12 on the season, but also likely needed to beat South Carolina in the second round and possibly even LSU in the quarterfinals to clinch an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament.
A lot has happened in the year since, including the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic that led to the rest of college basketball’s postseason being cancelled, and the conversation surrounding Arkansas as it heads to Nashville is completely different.
With a 21-5 record, second-place finish in the SEC and their first top-10 ranking in 26 years, the Razorbacks not only have an at-large bid wrapped up, but they are expected to have their best NCAA Tournament seed in more than two decades.
Most bracketologists currently have Arkansas projected to be a 3 seed in Indiana, which will host the entire 68-team event. In fact, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Arkansas as the No. 9 overall team - which is the top 3 seed and knocking on the door of a 2 seed.
That is also where Arkansas falls on Bracket Matrix, a site that combines 113 bracket projections with greater weight given to those that are traditionally more accurate.
Entering this year’s SEC Tournament, the biggest question for the Razorbacks is about seeding and whether or not they can jump - or fall - a seed line depending on their performance in Nashville.
In recent years, it seems as though the selection committee doesn’t put too much stock into the conference tournaments. Arkansas will likely lock up a 3 seed with a win over Georgia or Missouri in the quarterfinals, but there are a few scenarios that could alter its standing.
Based on Lunardi’s projections and the Bracket Matrix, the Razorbacks have some wiggle room to remain a 3 seed even if they lose their first game in the SEC Tournament. However, teams could move ahead of them with deep runs in their conference tournaments - such as Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas in the Big 12, Purdue in the Big Ten, Virginia in the ACC and Villanova in the Big East.
On the flip side, if Arkansas goes on a run and reaches - or even wins - the SEC Championship Game, it could become a 2 seed - regardless of what other teams do. It also wouldn’t hurt if Ohio State gets an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament or Houston fails to win the AAC Tournament.
Moving up to a 1 seed is out of the question, though. Gonzaga essentially clinched one of those by finishing off a perfect season with a win over BYU in the WCC Championship Game, while Baylor, Michigan and Illinois are in good position for the others.