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In just about three weeks, Arkansas will open its 2019 season against Portland State.
Before the Razorbacks begin a new year, though, let’s take a look back at some key statistics from last year’s 2-10 team that must improve if they hope to have a better season.
Quarterback Play
112.40 passer rating (14th/114th)
54.6 completion percentage (13th/107th)
6.2 yards/attempt (14th/114th)
18 interceptions thrown (14th/t-124th)
This is the most obvious area Arkansas needs to improve. Its quarterbacks struggled mightily, with a combined quarterback rating of 112.40. Such a low number is due to the inefficiency of the passing game last year, as detailed above, and the large amount of interception. In fact, only four teams - Temple, UTEP, Cal and Rutgers - threw more interceptions than Arkansas.
To their credit, head coach Chad Morris and his staff recognized this weakness and completely flipped the room. Ty Storey and Cole Kelley transferred out, while Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel transferred in. Whoever wins the job - and both will likely get an opportunity to play this season - must be better than last year’s quarterbacks for the offense to function how Morris wants.
Protect the Quarterback
85.9 pass blocking efficiency (12th/105th)
60.6 pass blocking grade (13th/t-118th)
2.67 sacks allowed/game (t-11th/t-98th)
No school in the SEC has allowed more sacks over the last three years than Arkansas, which gave up 102 during that span. That statistic is even more incredible when contrasted with the three years immediately prior to that stretch, as Arkansas allowed only 36 and led the conference each season.
Although it’s an issue that began under the previous coaching staff, it continued in Year 1 of Morris. Only Tennessee had a worse pass blocking grade from Pro Football Focus in the SEC than Arkansas’ 60.6. The Razorbacks’ pass blocking efficiency - which calculates pressure allowed on a per-snap basis with weighting toward sacks allowed - was also among the worst in the country.
Considering the depth issues at that position last season, it is likely a multi-year process for Arkansas’ offensive line to show drastic improvement. It isn’t, however, too much to ask for at least some improvement in 2019.
Opportunistic Scoring
1.67 points scored per offensive possession with short field (14th/130th)
According to data compiled by Brian Fremeau, Arkansas averaged just 1.67 points per possession that began less than 60 yards away from the end zone last season, excluding non-garbage possessions and those against FCS opponents. That ranked dead last in the country, trailing Kansas’ 1.82. Alabama was first, averaging 5.65 points on those possessions.
What does it mean? The Razorbacks failed - miserably - to take advantage of short fields given to them by turnovers or positive special teams plays. They were bad on offense as a whole last season - their 1.36-point average for all possessions ranked 124th - but comparatively worse when starting closer to the end zone. For the offense to make a jump in 2019, it must become more opportunistic in those situations.
Defending the Pass
64.9 coverage grade (14th/119th)
5 interceptions (14th/t-119th)
152.71 opponents’ passer rating (14th/114th)
Although Arkansas’ basic pass defense - 245.3 passing yards allowed per game - ranked 87th nationally, a closer look at it reveals that it was actually much worse than that. The Razorbacks finished dead last and among the bottom 20 teams in all of FBS in terms of coverage grade by Pro Football Focus, interceptions and opponents’ passer rating. In fact, only four teams - Coastal Carolina, USC, Duke and Oregon State - had fewer interceptions in 2018.
For the Razorbacks’ defense to show improvement, it can’t let teams pass on it at will. That means making opponents less efficient and coming down with more interceptions - something that has been an emphasis so far this fall camp.
More Disruption at LOS
69 tackles for loss (11th/t-82nd)
26 sacks (t-9th/t-69th)
One of the hallmarks of John Chavis’ defenses is their aggressiveness, resulting in a lot of stops behind the line of scrimmage. During his three seasons at Texas A&M, the Aggies averaged 103.7 tackles for loss and 38.7 sacks. Arkansas came nowhere close to those numbers last season.
Morris mentioned in his press conference earlier this week that the senior-laden defensive line needs to get after the quarterback a lot more this season. If they don’t, there are several talented freshmen waiting in the wings.
Special Teams
20.97 yards allowed/kickoff return (6th/71st)
2 kickoff return touchdowns allowed (14th/t-126th)
11.61 yards allowed/punt return (11th/117th)
1 punt return touchdown allowed (t-12th/t-71st)
37.49 yards/punt (13th/122nd)
28.81 touchback percentage (14th/97th)
Outside of placekicker Connor Limpert, Arkansas’ special teams units were not very good in 2018 - especially early in the season. The Razorbacks were one of only five teams that allowed multiple kickoff returns for touchdowns and also gave up the embarrassing fake fair catch punt return for a touchdown against North Texas.
Those were the highlights - or lowlights from Arkansas’ perspective - but the other units weren’t very good either. The Razorbacks averaged just 37.49 yards per punt, leading to the addition of transfer punter Sam Loy, and they managed a touchback on only 28.81 percent of their kickoffs. Those things wouldn’t be quite as important if Arkansas had excellent coverage units, but it did not.
Morris eventually had to put some starters on the special teams units and that seemed to help later in the season. However, that’s not a sustainable solution because it’s extra work for the starters and makes them more vulnerable for injuries. Developing enough quality depth will be important for future special teams success.
