Tempering Expectations: What should Arkansas fans expect after 2-10?
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With fall camp just around the corner, optimism is rampant across the country and Arkansas is no exception.
Despite coming off a 2-10 season that could legitimately be considered the worst in school history, a large section of the fan base is expecting marked improvement from the Razorbacks in Year 2 under head coach Chad Morris.
A soft non-conference schedule has some even thinking about bowl games, which would require at least two SEC wins - a total Arkansas hasn’t hit since 2016.
It’s been a long eight months since the Razorbacks last took the field, so it’s easy to write off the collapse at Colorado State and embarrassment against North Texas as typical struggles early in new coach’s tenure or forget how they limped into the offseason by losing to Mississippi State and Missouri by a combined score of 90-6.
Arkansas has certainly made moves to become a better team in 2019, such as getting rid of bad apples through transfers, signing a school-record 13 four-star recruits and adding a pair of graduate transfer quarterbacks.
However, it’s tough to dig out of the hole that is a two-win season. How tough exactly?
HawgBeat examined all 71 BCS/Power Five conference teams that won two or fewer games since the turn of the century (2000) and found that they increased their win total by an average of just 2.21 the following year and only 22.5 percent of them actually reached the six-win mark.
Throw out teams that have at least three seasons of two or fewer wins - the traditional bottom feeders: Colorado, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Washington and Washington State - and the numbers slightly improve.
That leaves just 27 teams, nine of which reached six wins the following year - or 33.3 percent. They also saw their win total increase by an average of 2.85. Round that up to three wins and that’d give Arkansas a 5-7 record.
Here’s a closer look at those nine non-bottom feeders who followed up a terrible season by reaching bowl eligibility…
2000-01 Wake Forest: 2-9 to 6-5
The Demon Deacons went 2-9 in 2000, leading to the firing of future NFL head coach Jim Caldwell. They brought in Jim Grobe, who immediately turned things around and led them to a 6-5 mark in 2001. Although it didn’t get invited to a bowl game, Wake Forest was actually closer to having an even better season, as all but one of its losses was by seven or fewer points.
2001-02 California: 1-10 to 7-5
A win at Rutgers on the other side of the country was the only thing that kept California from going winless in 2001. That led to the resignation of head coach Tom Holmoe and hiring of Jeff Tedford. In his first season, the Golden Bears went 7-5 - highlighted by three wins over top-25 teams - but weren’t allowed to play in a bowl game because of NCAA violations under the previous staff.
2003-04 North Carolina: 2-10 to 6-6
Unlike the previous two schools, North Carolina’s turnaround happened under the same head coach. John Bunting managed an eight-win season in his first year, which likely bought the UNC graduate enough goodwill to survive the three- and two-win seasons that followed. Although he never brought the Tar Heels back to that Year 1 level, he did lead them to a bowl game in 2004. They lost to Boston College in the Continental Tire Bowl.
2007-08 Minnesota: 1-11 to 7-6
This is the model Arkansas hopes to somewhat mimic in 2019. In its first season under head coach Tim Brewster, the Golden Gophers struggled to a 1-11 record that included a winless 0-8 mark in Big Ten play. The lone victory was a triple-overtime win over Miami (Ohio) in Week 2. Despite the poor showing, Minnesota managed to sign the No. 17 class in the country in 2008. It paid immediate dividends, as the Gophers got off to a 7-1 start - with a competitive loss to Ohio State - and rose to No. 20 in the AP Poll. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off and they lost five straight games to end the season, including to Kansas in the Insight Bowl.
2009-10 Maryland: 2-10 to 9-4
This was a unique situation in that a veteran coach with strong ties to the coach - Ralph Friedgen - was given another year after a disappointing 2-10 season in 2009. With offensive coordinator and official head coach-in-waiting James Franklin, the Terrapins bounced back by winning nine games, including a dominant 51-20 win over East Carolina in the Military Bowl, to finish No. 23 in the AP Poll. That was good enough for Friedgen to earn ACC Coach of the Year honors, but not good enough for him to keep his job. He was fired after Franklin took the Vanderbilt job.
2011-12 Ole Miss: 2-10 to 7-6
Former Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt led the Rebels to back-to-back Cotton Bowl wins, but quickly fizzled out. A 2-10 record in 2011 led to his resignation. Ole Miss hired Hugh Freeze and enjoyed an immediate turnaround. The Rebels capped a 7-6 season with an upset win over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl and a 38-17 win over Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl. However, those wins have since been vacated.
2012-13 Boston College: 2-10 to 7-6
In another case of a new coach leading to an immediate turnaround, Frank Spaziani was fired after a 2-10 season in 2012 and replaced by current coach Steve Addazio. Led by a monster season by running back Andre Williams, who rushed for 2,177 yards and finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting, the Eagles went 7-6 in 2013.
2016-17 Virginia: 2-10 to 6-7
Much like Minnesota a decade earlier, this is another formula Arkansas hopes to follow. Bronco Mendenhall went 2-10 in his first season with the Cavaliers, but quickly righted the ship. Virginia began the 2017 season 5-1 before losing six of its final seven games, including a 49-7 drumming by Navy in the Military Bowl. Mendenhall followed that up with an eight-win season last year and now has the Cavaliers picked to win their division this year.
2017-18 Baylor: 1-11 to 7-6
Yet another model for Arkansas to follow, Matt Rhule inherited an absolute dumpster fire at Baylor and the result was a 1-11 season with the lone victory coming against Kansas. In Year 2, he had the Bears in a bowl game thanks to a win over Texas Tech in the regular-season finale. They ended the year on a high note by beating Vanderbilt in dramatic fashion in the Texas Bowl.
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