Before Eric Musselman, no other coach in the history of Arkansas basketball made the NCAA Tournament in their second season as a head coach. Only John Pelphrey made a March Madness appearance in his debut season after taking over a loaded roster from Stan Heath.

Historically speaking, the third season has been the turning point that signified whether a coach would be a success or not.

Nearly at the very inception of Razorback basketball, Glen Rose elevated the program to new heights. In his second year at the helm, he won the SWC with a 14-5 (9-3) record, but his third year set the program standard. That year, 1935-36, the Razorbacks went 24-3 (11-1) and went on to win five SWC titles and a Final Four appearance in Rose’s first tenure.

Although it was such a long time ago and the college basketball landscape was completely different, head coach Eugene Lambert’s success in his third season in 1944-45 still counts in the record books. He led the Razorbacks to a 9-3 Southwest Conference record and a Final Four appearance.

Granted, there were only eight teams in the NCAA Tournament that year, Lambert’s Hogs defeated Oregon 79-76 in the first round before losing to Oklahoma A&M - now Oklahoma State - 68-41 in the semifinals. Lambert again led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Tournament in 1948-49, winning the third-place game in the West bracket over Wyoming 61-48.

Lambert was responsible for two of the program’s first three NCAA Tournament appearances, including its second ever Final Four appearance. He also won the SWC twice, giving the Razorbacks 12 in their first 26 years. HogStats.com reports three NCAA Tournament appearances for Lambert, citing that Arkansas was selected for the 1944 tournament but unable to participate due to an automobile accident.

After a few unsuccessful coaches and a mediocre second tenure from Rose, Arkansas struck gold when it hired Eddie Sutton in 1974. He transformed the program right away, taking over a losing team and winning 17 and 19 games in his first two seasons.

It was Year 3 that put the college basketball world on notice that the Razorbacks were ready to claim their place in the national spotlight again after a lengthy absence.

The Razorbacks went 16-0 in the SWC that year en route to a 26-2 record. Despite losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Arkansas peaked at number six in the AP poll and finished the year ranked 18th.

Sutton’s third year started a historic run in program history in which the Razorbacks made nine consecutive NCAA Tournaments, including runs to the Final Four, Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens.

He ultimately left the Razorbacks, but Sutton's successor would lead the program to even greater heights - although fans might have been concerned in the first two years under Nolan Richardson.

Richardson debuted with a losing season in 1985-86 and followed it up with a 19-14 record in Year 2. That season saw the Razorbacks make the NIT and play in-state opponent Arkansas State in the first round, which the Hogs barely beat 67-64 in overtime in Barnhill Arena.

With a skeptical and uneasy fanbase, Richardson entered his third year needing to produce the kind of results the fanbase was accustomed to seeing. And he did.

Arkansas made the NCAA Tournament, but lost in the first round, finishing with a respectable 21-9 (11-5) record. After making the Tournament in his third year, Richardson led the Hogs to 13 appearances in 14 years, including a national championship.

The Razorbacks were also national runners up once, and made it to another Final Four, Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens en route to becoming the program’s winningest coach of all time.

In the most recent history of Razorback basketball, each of the previous three head coaches missed the NCAA Tournament in their third year at the helm, and each coach’s tenure ended in a firing.

Heath struggled in taking over a giant like Richardson. Athletics Director Frank Broyles hired him after he debuted as a head coach for Kent State and led the Golden Flashes to a 30-win season and the Elite Eight. He never matched that level of success at Arkansas, limping out of the gate with back-to-back losing seasons and an 18-12 (6-10) effort in Year 3.

Heath’s tenure concluded with an 0-2 record in the NCAA Tournament and just one winning record in conference play, but with a lot of leftover talent Pelphrey would use to his advantage.

Pelphrey came out of the gate hot, winning 23 games in his first season at the helm and making it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Halfway through his second season, it seemed that Pelphrey was restoring the glory years of Razorback basketball, as the team started the year 13-1 with top-10 victories over Texas and Oklahoma.

That feeling was short-lived, as the Razorbacks lost 14 of their next 16 games. Pelphrey never really recovered during his tenure and was fired. To replace him, Arkansas AD Jeff Long hired Mike Anderson away from Missouri.

Anderson was a piece of the program’s storied past – an assistant under Nolan Richardson for years and a part of the national championship staff and other successes. It was considered by everyone to be a home-run hire to get Arkansas basketball back to relevance at a minimum.

Despite solid efforts in his first three years as the Head Hog, Anderson did not manage an NCAA Tournament appearance until Year 4, when the Hogs lost in the second round. There was a reason for optimism, but the program took a step back the next year, and despite making two more Tournament appearances the following two years, Anderson never led the Hogs to the second weekend and did not recruit well enough to show how he could get that done in Fayetteville.

All of this is to say Year 3 has been monumental in taking a historical look at coaches’ success in the Arkansas basketball program. However, no coach in program history accomplished as much in his first two years as Eric Musselman.

Musselman is the only coach besides Pelphrey to win 20+ games in his debut season and the only coach to make the NCAA Tournament in Year 2. Musselman is just the fifth coach in program history to make the Elite Eight (including the initial tournament field of 8 in the 1940s).

Sutton made the Final Four in Year 4, Richardson made the Final Four in Year 5, and Rose made the Elite Eight in Year 6 of his second tenure (the field was expanded to 24 teams in 1958).

What does all of this say about the potential success of the Razorback program under Musselman? Like Richardson said, “We created a monster, and you’ve got to feed it.”

There is no sign of the Muss Bus slowing down anytime soon, but such unprecedented early success has the fanbase extremely optimistic for the future.

Based on the “Year 3 test” highlighted here, Musselman at the very least should make the NCAA Tournament again for sustained success at Arkansas, and I don’t think Razorback fans have anything to worry about on that front.

The roster is more talented this year than last year from top to bottom, and key pieces are returning to contribute again with winning experience. The coaching staff also added highly-touted transfers from the transfer portal to bolster the depth and talent pool available throughout the season.

So far, Musselman is a statistical outlier compared to Razorback coaches of all eras. He’s risen to success the most rapidly in terms of regular-season and NCAA Tournament wins, and has established the program’s brand to be its most relevant since the 1990s.

While Year 3 historically has been the turning point of determining program success under most coaches for Arkansas, this outlier might have had his turning point in Year 2.