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Published Feb 5, 2019
Update: ESPN BPI projects Arkansas' final 10 regular-season games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch

It’s amazing the difference a week can make.

Just seven days ago, Arkansas was so far off the bubble that it was even seeded low in some NIT bracketology. With wins over Georgia and No. 19 LSU, though, the Razorbacks are slowly creeping back into the picture.

Four of the 92 NCAA Tournament projections on BracketMatrix.com actually have them in as an 11 or 12 seed, but most believe they still have work to do. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm, for example, has them in his “Next Four Out.”

Beating a team like LSU on the road, which ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave Arkansas a 15.9 percent chance to do, is enough to get back into the postseason conversation. Now it must build off it and go on one of Mike Anderson’s typical February runs.

The Razorbacks are playing well of late and that is reflected in the BPI’s projections for the remaining 10 games, with eight seeing an increase in their odds of winning:

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ESPN BPI Projections for Arkansas
GameARK chance of winningChange since last week

Feb. 5 - vs. Vanderbilt

78.8 percent

+5.8 percent

Feb. 9 - at South Carolina

38.9 percent

+3.6 percent

Feb. 12 - at Missouri

45.1 percent

+5.6 percent

Feb. 16 - vs. Mississippi State

42.5 percent

+1.2 percent

Feb. 20 - at Auburn

8.9 percent

-1.3 percent

Feb. 23 - vs. Texas A&M

80.5 percent

+3.8 percent

Feb. 26 - at Kentucky

7.1 percent

-1.6 percent

March 2 - vs. Ole Miss

56.4 percent

+2.9 percent

March 6 - at Vanderbilt

50.9 percent

+8.2 percent

March 9 - vs. Alabama

63.9 percent

+4.7 percent

As you can see, they are favored to win five of those games, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the BPI is predicting Arkansas to win half of its remaining games.

In three other games, the Razorbacks have at least a 38 percent chance of winning and they’re heavy underdogs - less than 10 percent chance - in the other two.

Using those figures, it is possible to determine how likely it is for Arkansas to finish with each record, from 0-10 to 10-0, down the stretch. Here are those percentages, as well as how they’ve changed since winning two games last week:

Chances of Final Record
Stretch record (overall, SEC)LikelihoodChange since last week

10-0 (23-8, 14-4)

0.005 percent

+0.0045 percent

9-1 (22-9, 13-5)

0.17 percent

+0.15 percent

8-2 (21-10, 12-6)

1.73 percent

+1.52 percent

7-3 (20-11, 11-7)

7.88 percent

+6.43 percent

6-4 (19-12, 10-8)

19.21 percent

+13.44 percent

5-5 (18-13, 9-9)

27.74 percent

+13.33 percent

4-6 (17-14, 8-10)

24.65 percent

+1.17 percent

3-7 (16-15, 7-11)

13.47 percent

-11.88 percent

2-8 (15-16, 6-12)

4.34 percent

-13.78 percent

1-9 (14-17, 5-13)

0.75 percent

-7.64 percent

0-10 (13-18, 4-14)

0.05 percent

-2.35 percent

As you can see, the most likely record, according to ESPN’s BPI, is a 5-5 finish that would make Arkansas 18-13 overall and 9-9 in SEC.

Reaching the 19-win mark would probably give the Razorbacks more solid ground when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament and they have a 29.0 percent chance of winning at least that many games in the regular season. At this time last week, that had just a 7.5 percent chance of doing that, so their odds have nearly quadrupled.

Even if Arkansas can’t quite make the big dance, the NIT - which requires an above-.500 record - seems very attainable. The Razorbacks have an 81.4 percent chance to win at least 17 games, which guarantees a winning record, and better than 50/50 odds (56.7 percent) to get to 18 wins.