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Published Feb 12, 2019
Update: ESPN BPI projects Arkansas' final 8 regular-season games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch

If Arkansas only wins the games its supposed to the rest of the season and finds itself on the wrong side of the bubble in March, it can likely point to last Saturday as the reason why.

With a chance to add another road victory to their resume, the Razorbacks blew a 13-point lead and lost to South Carolina.

Had it won that game, Arkansas would have close to a 50 percent chance to finish 10-8 in SEC play and finish the regular season with 19 wins, according to the current ESPN Basketball Power Index projections.

Instead, the Razorbacks have an uphill battle to get to that point. They are favored in only four of their remaining eight games, with two of them being a virtual toss up, and are heavy underdogs in two others.

Using the game-by-game projections below, the most likely record for Arkansas is either 17-14 or 18-13, as those marks have a 29.8 and 28.4 percent chance of happening, respectively.

The Razorbacks have just an 18.7 percent chance of reaching the 19-win mark and having a conference record above .500, which would put them in good position to make the NCAA Tournament.

If they fall short of that total and win only 17 or 18 regular-season games (58.2 percent chance), they'll have work to do in the SEC Tournament or wait for an NIT invitation.

Here are the updated percentages from the BPI, as well as their change from last week's numbers...

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ESPN BPI Projections for Arkansas
GameARK chance of winningChange since last week

Feb. 12 - at Missouri

45.6 percent

+0.5 percent

Feb. 16 - vs. Mississippi State

41.9 percent

-0.6 percent

Feb. 20 - at Auburn

8.3 percent

-0.6 percent

Feb. 23 - vs. Texas A&M

76.6 percent

-3.9 percent

Feb. 26 - at Kentucky

4.1 percent

-3.0 percent

March 2 - vs. Ole Miss

52.9 percent

-3.5 percent

March 6 - at Vanderbilt

50.9 percent

0 percent

March 9 - vs. Alabama

60.5 percent

-3.4 percent

Chances of Final Record
Stretch record (overall, SEC)LikelihoodChange since last week

8-0 (22-9, 13-5)

0.0081 percent

-0.162 percent

7-1 (21-10, 12-6)

0.32 percent

-1.41 percent

6-2 (20-11, 11-7)

3.70 percent

-4.18 percent

5-3 (19-12, 10-8)

14.70 percent

-4.51 percent

4-4 (18-13, 9-9)

28.37 percent

+0.63 percent

3-5 (17-14, 8-10)

29.84 percent

+5.19 percent

2-6 (16-15, 7-11)

17.33 percent

+3.86 percent

1-7 (15-16, 6-12)

5.14 percent

+0.80 percent

0-8 (14-17, 5-13)

0.59 percent

-0.16 percent

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