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Published Feb 4, 2020
UPDATE: ESPN BPI projects Arkansas' remaining 10 games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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Arkansas got back on track Saturday, as its win at Alabama went a long way in canceling out its home loss to South Carolina earlier in the week.

Despite being an underdog, the Razorbacks went into Tuscaloosa, Ala., and knocked off the Crimson Tide 82-78.

It was one of three games ESPN's Basketball Power Index gave Arkansas less than a 50 percent chance of winning in its final 12 games of the season, so pulling out the victory helped offset losing to the Gamecocks - the team it had the best chance of beating down the stretch.

Among the remaining 10 games, the Razorbacks are heavy favorites at home against Missouri (83.5%) and Tennessee (73.2%) and on the road against Texas A&M (79.4%).

Even though they proved the BPI wrong at Alabama, they're still underdogs at Tennessee (41.4%) and Florida (26.8%). Their odds in those games did, however, go up after Saturday's win.

That said, it would be inaccurate to say the BPI predicts Arkansas to finish 8-2 over its final 10 games. It still has a chance to win those two games as an underdog, plus it has a chance to lose some of the games in which it is favored.

Using the game-by-game projections - which are listed in the first chart below - you can calculate the odds of each possible record, from 0-10 to 10-0, for Arkansas down the stretch.

The most likely record - at 26.6 percent - is 6-4, which would make the Razorbacks 22-9 overall and 10-8 in SEC play.

Reaching the 23-win mark in the regular season - something it has done just twice in the previous 24 years - is still in play for Arkansas, as well. After dipping to just 23.9 percent after the South Carolina loss, hitting that mark - or beyond - now has a 39.7 percent chance of happening.

The complete breakdown of Arkansas' possible final regular-season records is included in the second chart below.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameLikelihoodChange since Alabama win

Feb. 4 - vs. Auburn

58.4%

-0.7%

Feb. 8 - at Missouri

60.5%

+4.4%

Feb. 11 - at Tennessee

41.4%

+1.9%

Feb. 15 - vs. Miss. State

61.9%

-1.4%

Feb. 18 - at Florida

26.8%

+1.0%

Feb. 22 - vs. Missouri

83.5%

+2.5%

Feb. 26 - vs. Tennessee

73.2%

+1.8%

Feb. 29 - at Georgia

64.1%

-0.4%

March 4 - vs. LSU

59.5%

+1.4%

March 7 - at Texas A&M

79.4%

+2.0%

Arkansas' Record Projections
Finish -- Final Record (SEC)LikelihoodChange since Alabama win

10-0 --> 26-5 (14-4)

0.45%

+0.30%

9-1 --> 25-6 (13-5)

3.68%

+2.15%

8-2 --> 24-7 (12-6)

12.42%

+5.90%

7-3 --> 23-8 (11-7)

23.14%

+7.45%

6-4 --> 22-9 (10-8)

26.64%

+2.75%

5-5 --> 21-10 (9-9)

19.93%

-4.34%

4-6 --> 20-11 (8-10)

9.85%

-6.98%

3-7 --> 19-12 (7-11)

3.18%

-4.81%

2-8 --> 18-13 (6-12)

0.64%

-1.90%

1-9 --> 17-14 (5-13)

0.073%

-0.45%

0-10 --> 16-15 (4-14)

0.0036%

-0.057%