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Published Sep 12, 2019
Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 10 games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch

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Arkansas' bowl hopes are hanging on by a thread.

After losing their SEC opener to Ole Miss on Saturday - the conference game ESPN's Football Power Index gave them the best chance to win - the Razorbacks now have just a 7.9 percent chance to win at least six games, according to the computer projections.

The most likely record for Arkansas is still 4-8, but as you can see in the second table below, it actually has a slightly greater chance to lose one of its remaining non-conference games and finish 3-9 than win an SEC game and finish 5-7.

As detailed in the first table below, the Razorbacks are given at least a 73 percent chance to win those non-conference games, but their remaining SEC games are all less than 20 percent.

The most likely conference win now is the season finale against Missouri on Black Friday, as the FPI gives Arkansas a 19.7 percent chance to win at War Memorial Stadium.

The final chart illustrates Arkansas' plummeting chances to reach six wins and make a bowl game. It had a 27.0 percent chance in the preseason and fell to 13.3 percent after an uninspiring win over Portland State in Week 1.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameLikelihoodChange since last week

Sept. 14 - Colorado St.

73.8%

-3.0%

Sept. 21 - San Jose St.

85.0%

+4.4%

Sept. 28 - vs. Texas A&M

8.4%

+1.1%

Oct. 12 - at Kentucky

14.2%

+0.8%

Oct. 19 - Auburn

9.3%

+1.3%

Oct. 26 - at Alabama

1.2%

none

Nov. 2 - Mississippi St.

15.9%

-0.8%

Nov. 9 - Western Kentucky

73.9%

-3.2%

Nov. 23 - at LSU

2.3%

+0.2%

Nov. 29 - Missouri (LR)

19.7%

-4.9%

Arkansas' Record Projection
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

11-1

0.00000044%

-0.000014%

10-2

0.000072%

-0.00073%

9-3

0.0038%

-0.017%

8-4

0.089%

-0.20%

7-5

1.05%

-1.28%

6-6

6.76%

-3.90%

5-7

23.32%

-3.96%

4-8

38.85%

+3.34%

3-9

23.66%

+4.55%

2-10

5.79%

+1.36%

1-11

0.48%

+0.11%

HawgBeat will update these figures as they adjust throughout the season.