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A blowout loss to Mississippi State has officially ended Arkansas' hopes of making a bowl game.
After six straight weeks in which their bowl odds hovered around or below 1 percent, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Razorbacks must now win at least one of their remaining three games to avoid another 10-loss season.
Their best shot is Saturday against Western Kentucky. Although they are just a 1.5-point favorite in Vegas and actually considered an underdog in Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings, the Razorbacks still have a 62.5 percent chance of winning, per the FPI.
That is down 4 percentage points from last week. The other two games - at LSU (down 0.5) and against Missouri (down 3.6) - also saw the percentages swing further against Arkansas.
With those shifts, there is now a 30.5 percent chance for the Razorbacks to go 2-10 for a second straight season, as seen in the final graph below.