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Published Oct 24, 2019
Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 5 games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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The win-loss result last week was not a surprise, but just how bad Arkansas lost to Auburn was somewhat unexpected.

The Razorbacks were given just a 6.6 percent chance by ESPN's Football Power Index to beat the Tigers, but they were a 19.5-point underdog in Vegas. They more than doubled that spread in a 51-10 loss.

Sitting at 2-5, Arkansas would have to win four of its five remaining games. That is extremely unlikely because two of the games - at Alabama and at LSU - have a win expectancy less than 3 percent.

Even the most likely win left on the schedule, against Western Kentucky, has seen its win expectancy drop by 10 percent over the last two weeks.

That's why, as seen in the first graph below, the Razorbacks' bowl hopes have dipped to 0.092 percent. Conversely, they have a season-high 20.82 percent chance to replicate last year's 2-10 mark.

All of the updated figures can be seen in the charts and graphs below.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameLikelihoodChange since last week

Oct. 26 - at Alabama

1.1%

-0.1%

Nov. 2 - Mississippi State

25.0%

-3.0%

Nov. 9 - Western Kentucky

65.8%

-5.6%

Nov. 23 - at LSU

2.2%

-0.9%

Nov. 29 - Missouri (LR)

16.1%

+0.6%

Arkansas' Record Projections
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

7-5

0.00064%

-0.0094%

6-6

0.092%

-0.31%

5-7

3.33%

-2.29%

4-8

24.09%

-4.79%

3-9

51.68%

+2.15%

2-10

20.82%

+5.26%