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Published Oct 17, 2019
Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 6 games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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Arkansas squandered one of its best remaining chances at picking up an SEC win this season last week.

Blowing a 13-0 lead and coming up short in the red zone once again late in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 loss to Kentucky, the Razorbacks extended their SEC losing streak to 14 games.

It doesn't get much easier for Arkansas. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, it has less than a 10 percent chance to win either of its next games. In fact, there is a 92.3 percent chance the Razorbacks lose both games to drop to 2-6 on the season.

Their most likely win is still against Mississippi State on Nov. 2. Even though Arkansas lost last week, its odds in that game increased by 7.1 percentage points because the Bulldogs had a bad showing in a loss to Tennessee. However, the Razorbacks' chances are still just 28.0 percent.

At this point, Arkansas basically has a 50/50 shot at finishing with a 3-9 mark. It likely hinges on beating Western Kentucky and Ty Storey on Nov. 9.

Going to a bowl game is extremely unlikely now, as the Razorbacks have less than a 1 percent chance to reach six wins for the first time this season. Conversely, they have a season-high 15.6 percent chance to replicate last year's 2-10 mark.

All of the updated figures can be seen in the charts and graphs below.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameLikelihoodChange since last week

Oct. 19 - Auburn

6.6%

+1.8%

Oct. 26 - at Alabama

1.2%

+0.1%

Nov. 2 - Mississippi State

28.0%

+7.1%

Nov. 9 - Western Kentucky

71.4%

-4.4%

Nov. 23 - at LSU

3.1%

+0.3%

Nov. 29 - Missouri (LR)

15.5%

+0.1%

Arkansas' Record Projections
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

8-4

0.000076%

-0.0010%

7-5

0.010%

-0.042%

6-6

0.40%

-0.61%

5-7

5.62%

-2.78%

4-8

28.88%

-2.63%

3-9

49.53%

+2.55%

2-10

15.56%

+3.51%