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Published Sep 19, 2019
Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 9 games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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FAYETTEVILLE -- Arkansas received a much-needed jolt of energy by beating Colorado State last weekend.

The Razorbacks' 55-34 win over the Rams has not only excited the fan base, but it also breathed some life into their bowl hopes.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Arkansas now has a 12.8 percent to reach the six-win mark this year. While still really low, that's up from 7.9 percent following the loss to Ole Miss the week before - as can be seen in the graph below.

In addition to guaranteeing the Razorbacks at least match last year's win total, the victory also improved their chances - according to the FPI - to win most of their remaining games.

Outside of the two final non-conference games, they have at least a 15 percent chance to beat Kentucky, Mississippi State and Missouri. The Bulldogs are their best chance, at 21.4 percent.

Only Auburn and Missouri have a better chance to beat Arkansas compared to last week's number, and both were increased by less than 1 percent.

As you can see in the second chart, 4-8 is still the Razorbacks' most likely final record, but 5-7 is also within reach. Last week, they had a better chance to win three games than five games.

It's also worth noting that Arkansas is 10 times more likely reach six wins than post another 2-10 mark.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameLikelihoodChange since last week

Sept. 21 - San Jose St.

88.0%

+3.0%

Sept. 28 - vs. Texas A&M

8.5%

+0.1%

Oct. 12 - at Kentucky

15.2%

+1.0%

Oct. 19 - Auburn

8.5%

-0.8%

Oct. 26 - at Alabama

1.2%

none

Nov. 2 - Mississippi State

21.4%

+5.5%

Nov. 9 - Western Kentucky

79.0%

+5.1%

Nov. 23 - at LSU

3.3%

+1.0%

Nov. 29 - Missouri (LR)

19.4%

-0.3%

Arkansas' Record Projections
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

11-1

0.0000013%

+0.00000086%

10-2

0.00018%

+0.00011

9-3

0.0086%

+0.0048%

8-4

0.18%

+0.091%

7-5

1.89%

+0.84%

6-6

10.77%

+4.01%

5-7

31.71%

+8.39%

4-8

41.34%

+2.49%

3-9

13.02%

-10.64%

2-10

1.08%

-4.71%