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Published Jan 26, 2021
UPDATE: ESPN's BPI projects Arkansas' final 10 SEC games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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Now back to .500 in SEC play, Arkansas has a legitimate path to its best conference record in at least four years.

Following wins over Auburn and Vanderbilt to improve to 4-4, the Razorbacks' most likely conference record is 11-7, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index.

The BPI actually favors Arkansas in all but one of its remaining SEC games, with the only exception being the Feb. 13 road trip to Missouri, as seen in the first chart below.

(Arkansas also has a 58.2 percent chance to win its lone remaining non-conference game - at Oklahoma State on Saturday - but that has no impact on the conference record.)

Previously, the Razorbacks' most likely record was 10-8. If they win 11 SEC games, it would be their best mark since finishing 12-6 in 2017.

The complete rundown of each possible record - from 3-15 to 14-4 - and its likelihood is in the second chart below.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game BPI Projections
GameBPI's Chance of WinningChange since last game

Jan. 27 - vs. Ole Miss

71.1%

+7.6%

Feb. 2 - vs. Mississippi State

74.8%

+3.1%

Feb. 6 - vs. Texas A&M

87.8%

-0.4%

Feb. 9 - at Kentucky

57.7%

0%

Feb. 13 - at Missouri

46.8%

-0.2%

Feb. 16 - vs. Florida

59.0%

+1.7%

Feb. 20 - at Texas A&M

77.9%

+3.0%

Feb. 24 - vs. Alabama

51.3%

+1.8%

Feb. 27 - vs. LSU

58.7%

+4.8%

March 2 - at South Carolina

61.6%

+1.1%

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Arkansas' Possible Records, per BPI
RecordLikelihoodChange since last game

14-4

1.08%

+0.51%

13-5

6.46%

+2.55

12-6

16.99%

+4.99%

11-7

25.74%

+4.16%

10-8

24.81%

-0.42%

9-9

15.86%

-4.24%

8-10

6.79%

-4.31%

7-11

1.91%

-2.33%

6-12

0.34%

-0.75%

5-13

0.033%

-0.15%

4-14

0.0014%

-0.016%