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Published Nov 11, 2021
UPDATE: ESPN's FPI projects Arkansas' last 3 games of 2021
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch
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With a bowl game already in the bag, Arkansas has shifted its focus to reaching a win total it hasn't hit in a decade.

The Razorbacks haven't won eight or more games in the regular season since going 10-2 in 2011, but ESPN's Football Power Index gives them a 38.7 percent chance of doing just that this year.

Accomplishing that feat likely hinges on the upcoming game. Arkansas is a slight underdog at LSU, per the FPI, which gives it just a 41.0 percent chance to beat the Tigers.

The last two games on the schedule are heavily skewed in favor of the home team, with the Razorbacks a heavy underdog at Alabama (7.3%) and a heavy favorite against Missouri (84.3%).

The most likely outcome for Arkansas, though, is winning just one of the last three games to finish 7-5. It hasn't won seven games in the regular season since 2015.

Here are the FPI's complete game-by-game projections and the likelihood of each possible record, from 6-6 to 9-3...

Game-by-Game Projections
GameFPI oddsChange since the bye week

Nov. 13 - at LSU

41.0%

-2.7%

Nov. 20 - at Alabama

7.3%

+1.3%

Nov. 26 - Missouri

84.3%

-0.4%

Record Projections
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

9-3 (5-3)

2.52%

+0.33%

8-4 (4-4)

36.14%

+11.38%

7-5 (3-5)

52.75%

+6.16%

6-6 (2-6)

8.59%

-15.66%