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Published Oct 5, 2021
UPDATE: ESPN's FPI projects Arkansas' last 7 games of 2021
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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Despite suffering a blowout loss, Arkansas didn't get dinged too much by ESPN's Football Power Index.

The Razorbacks fell to Georgia 37-0 and dropped five spots to No. 19 in the FPI's rankings, but they're still projected to win eight games.

What the loss did, though, was severely decrease their outside chances of doing any damage in the postseason.

Arkansas entered the week with a 3.4 percent chance to win the SEC West, but that has been slashed in half, to just 1.7 percent. It College Football Playoff odds - which always seemed like a pipe dream - dropped from 3.4 to 0.5 percent.

However, the Razorbacks are still favored to win five of their final seven games - albeit only slight favorites against Auburn (57.0%) and LSU (50.4%).

Their chances of beating Missouri at the end of the year continue to tick up, as the Tigers were blown out by Tennessee last week. The FPI now gives Arkansas an 87.3 percent chance to win the Battle Line Rivalry on Black Friday.

Using those individual game projections, Arkansas' most likely final record is 8-4, with a 36.3 percent likelihood. It's also worth noting that, although it's not quite as wide of a gap as last week, the Razorbacks are still more likely to go 9-3 (25.8%) than 7-5 (23.1%).

Here is the complete breakdown...

Game-by-Game Projections
GameFPI oddsChange since last week

Oct. 9 - at Ole Miss

33.3%

+0.2%

Oct. 16 - Auburn

57.0%

-5.2%

Oct. 23 - UAPB (Little Rock)

99.8%

-0.1%

Nov. 6 - Mississippi State

67.9%

-6.9%

Nov. 13 - at LSU

50.4%

-1.6%

Nov. 20 - at Alabama

9.0%

-2.8%

Nov. 26 - Missouri

87.3%

+3.3%

Record Projections
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

11-1

0.51%

-1.22%

10-2

7.37%

-4.05%

9-3

25.83%

-3.78%

8-4

36.29%

+2.26%

7-5

23.12%

+4.80%

6-6

6.33%

+1.91%

5-7

0.54%

+0.16%

4-8

0.0011%

+0.00073%