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Published Sep 28, 2021
UPDATE: ESPN's FPI projects Arkansas' last 8 games of 2021
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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With bowl eligibility no longer much of a question, Arkansas has thrust itself into the national conversation and ESPN's computers are taking notice.

Following their 20-10 win over Texas A&M to improve to 4-0, the Razorbacks moved up to No. 14 in the Football Power Index (FPI) and have an outside chance of making some noise in the postseason.

Alabama is still the heavy favorite to win the SEC West, but the FPI gives Arkansas a 3.4 percent chance to win the division. That is the third-best odds in the West, behind the Crimson Tide (79.9%) and Ole Miss (11.2%).

The Razorbacks are projected to win 8.3 games, with their most likely record - using the game-by-game projections listed in the first chart below - being 8-4. However, it's worth noting that they are more likely to go 9-3 than 7-5 at this point, per the FPI. (Full record projections are listed in the second chart below.)

On the national scale, the FPI gives Arkansas a 3.4 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. It is one of 16 teams the ESPN analytic gives at least a 3 percent chance to be one of those four teams.

From an individual game perspective, the Razorbacks are now favored in five of their last eight games. They're pretty heavy underdogs against Georgia (10.9%) and Alabama (11.8%) - which are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the FPI - on the road. Ole Miss is also favored to beat Arkansas.

Here is the complete breakdown...

Game-by-Game Projections
GameFPI oddsChange since last week

Oct. 2 - at Georgia

10.9%

-1.7%

Oct. 9 - at Ole Miss

33.1%

+3.6%

Oct. 16 - Auburn

63.2%

+13.1%

Oct. 23 - UAPB (Little Rock)

99.9%

+0.1%

Nov. 6 - Mississippi State

74.8%

+3.4%

Nov. 13 - at LSU

52.0%

+2.8%

Nov. 20 - at Alabama

11.8%

+0.5%

Nov. 26 - Missouri

84.0%

+1.6%

Record Projections
RecordLikelihoodChange since last week

12-0

0.088%

+0.062%

11-1

1.73%

+1.18%

10-2

11.42%

+7.18%

9-3

29.61%

+14.25%

8-4

34.03%

+5.00%

7-5

18.32%

-11.50%

6-6

4.42%

-11.88%

5-7

0.38%

-3.89%

4-8

0.00037%

-0.41%