Updated ESPN BPI projections: Can Arkansas reach 20 wins?
Arkansas has an uphill climb to reach the 20-win mark.
After losing its first two SEC games, including a heartbreaker at home to Vanderbilt on Wednesday, the Razorbacks have just a 14.1 percent chance to hit that milestone in the regular season, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index.
That is down from 41.1 percent before the start of conference play.
Getting to the 20-win mark would require either a 9-9 SEC record with a win over West Virginia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge or at least a 10-8 mark in SEC play with a loss to the Mountaineers.
Before opening up SEC play, the Razorbacks were favored in just eight of 18 conference games - including against Vanderbilt. After the two losses, they're now favored in just five of their remaining 16 SEC games.
Throw in the fact that it is still a slight favorite against West Virginia, with a 58.4 percent chance of winning (down from 60.5% last week), Arkansas needs to pull off at least four upsets the rest of the way to get to 20 wins.
Using the game-by-game projections below, it can be calculated that Arkansas' most likely SEC record is 7-11. It's also worth noting that it has a higher chance of going 6-12 than 8-10 (19.8% vs. 18.9%).
Here are the game-by-game projections for Arkansas' SEC games, followed by their possible conference records...
| Game | Arkansas' chance to win | Chance since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 8 - at Texas A&M |
34.6% |
-3.8% |
|
Jan. 12 - vs. Missouri |
89.8% |
+0.2% |
|
Jan. 15 - at LSU |
11.5% |
-1.3% |
|
Jan. 18 - vs. South Carolina |
78.1% |
+0.4% |
|
Jan. 22 - vs. Texas A&M |
65.2% |
-9.0% |
|
Jan. 26 - at Ole Miss |
40.7% |
-11.8% |
|
Feb. 2 - at Georgia |
67.1% |
-1.3% |
|
Feb. 5 - vs. Miss. State |
49.0% |
-5.1% |
|
Feb. 8 - vs. Auburn |
41.9% |
-4.1% |
|
Feb. 12 - at Alabama |
18.8% |
-5.1% |
|
Feb. 15 - at Missouri |
72.9% |
+0.4% |
|
Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee |
32.5% |
-1.6% |
|
Feb. 22 - at Florida |
20.5% |
-1.2% |
|
Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky |
28.4% |
-6.5% |
|
March 2 - vs. LSU |
35.9% |
-2.3% |
|
March 5 - at Tennessee |
11.2% |
-0.5% |
| SEC Record | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
16-2 |
0.000011% |
-0.0049% |
|
15-3 |
0.00040% |
-0.044 |
|
14-4 |
0.0066% |
-0.26% |
|
13-5 |
0.064% |
-1.11% |
|
12-6 |
0.40% |
-3.29% |
|
11-7 |
1.70% |
-6.95% |
|
10-8 |
5.21% |
-10.03% |
|
9-9 |
11.59% |
-8.75% |
|
8-10 |
18.91% |
-1.67% |
|
7-11 |
22.65% |
+6.91% |
|
6-12 |
19.77% |
+10.76 |
|
5-13 |
12.38% |
+8.57% |
|
4-14 |
5.42% |
+4.26% |
|
3-15 |
1.59% |
+1.34% |
|
2-16 |
0.29% |
+0.26% |
|
1-17 |
0.030% |
+0.027 |
|
0-18 |
0.0013% |
+0.0012% |