Updated ESPN BPI projections: Challenging stretch awaits Hogs
With five games remaining in the SEC race, Arkansas has separated itself as one of the top four teams in the conference.
That would put the Razorbacks in line for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, but after crushing Missouri again on Tuesday, nothing is easy from here on out.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index favors Arkansas in just one of its last five games, making it a slight favorite (52.3% chance to win) against LSU in Fayetteville.
The Razorbacks have between a 35-42 percent chance to win their next three games before that matchup with the Tigers and then they end the year as a heavy underdog at Tennessee (13.7%).
The most likely scenario, using those BPI projections, is that Arkansas goes 2-3 down the stretch, but it also has a decent shot at flipping that record and instead going 3-2. Winning out is still a long shot and even a 4-1 finish doesn't have great odds.
Here are the projections for each of Arkansas' remaining regular-season games, followed by its possible final regular-season records...
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| Game | Arkansas' chance to win | Chance since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee |
40.4% |
+2.3% |
|
Feb. 22 - at Florida |
41.7% |
+4.7% |
|
Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky |
35.8% |
+2.5% |
|
March 2 - vs. LSU |
52.3% |
+2.7% |
|
March 5 - at Tennessee |
13.7% |
+0.7% |
| Record (SEC) | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
25-6 (14-4) |
0.43% |
-0.73% |
|
24-7 (13-5) |
5.13% |
-1.64% |
|
23-8 (12-6) |
20.14% |
+0.25% |
|
22-9 (11-7) |
35.67% |
+3.79% |
|
21-10 (10-8) |
29.44% |
+1.94% |
|
20-11 (9-9) |
9.18% |
-2.09% |