Updated ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) projections: Challenging stretch awaits Arkansas Razorbacks
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Updated ESPN BPI projections: Challenging stretch awaits Hogs

Arkansas is 20-6 with five games remaining in the regular season.
Arkansas is 20-6 with five games remaining in the regular season. (Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)

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With five games remaining in the SEC race, Arkansas has separated itself as one of the top four teams in the conference.

That would put the Razorbacks in line for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, but after crushing Missouri again on Tuesday, nothing is easy from here on out.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index favors Arkansas in just one of its last five games, making it a slight favorite (52.3% chance to win) against LSU in Fayetteville.

The Razorbacks have between a 35-42 percent chance to win their next three games before that matchup with the Tigers and then they end the year as a heavy underdog at Tennessee (13.7%).

The most likely scenario, using those BPI projections, is that Arkansas goes 2-3 down the stretch, but it also has a decent shot at flipping that record and instead going 3-2. Winning out is still a long shot and even a 4-1 finish doesn't have great odds.

Here are the projections for each of Arkansas' remaining regular-season games, followed by its possible final regular-season records...

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Arkansas' Game-by-Game SEC Projections
Game Arkansas' chance to win Chance since last week

Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee

40.4%

+2.3%

Feb. 22 - at Florida

41.7%

+4.7%

Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky

35.8%

+2.5%

March 2 - vs. LSU

52.3%

+2.7%

March 5 - at Tennessee

13.7%

+0.7%

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Projecting Arkansas' Record
Record (SEC) Likelihood Change since last week

25-6 (14-4)

0.43%

-0.73%

24-7 (13-5)

5.13%

-1.64%

23-8 (12-6)

20.14%

+0.25%

22-9 (11-7)

35.67%

+3.79%

21-10 (10-8)

29.44%

+1.94%

20-11 (9-9)

9.18%

-2.09%