Updated ESPN BPI projections: Critical stretch coming up for Hogs
Arkansas is about to enter a critical stretch of its 2021-22 schedule.
After this Saturday, when they're a heavy underdog on the road against LSU, the Razorbacks are favored in six straight games, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index.
Those six games include the Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup with West Virginia, as well as home games against South Carolina, Texas A&M and Mississippi State and road trips to Ole Miss and Georgia.
It won't be easy, as the BPI gives it just an 8.9 percent chance of happening, but going on a winning streak like that is crucial to Arkansas' chances of making the NCAA Tournament.
Even after blowout out Missouri this week, the Razorbacks have just a 21.1 percent chance to reach the 20-win mark during the regular season, which would presumably get them back on the bubble. That is up 7 percentage points from last week, but still not exactly great odds.
If it rattles off a six-game winning streak, assuming a loss at LSU, Arkansas' chances of reaching 20 wins increases to 63.5% - and that's before any projection adjustments by the BPI as the games are played.
As things currently stand, though, the Razorbacks' most likely final SEC record - which can be calculated with the BPI's game-by-game projections below - is still 7-11 at 23.0%. However, that is just barely higher than the chance of going 8-10, which is 22.5%.
Here are the projections for each of Arkansas' conference games, followed by its possible SEC records...
| Game | Arkansas' chance to win | Chance since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 15 - at LSU |
11.9% |
+0.4% |
|
Jan. 18 - vs. South Carolina |
82.0% |
+3.9% |
|
Jan. 22 - vs. Texas A&M |
68.2% |
+3.0% |
|
Jan. 26 - at Ole Miss |
54.7% |
+14.0% |
|
Feb. 2 - at Georgia |
75.7% |
+8.6% |
|
Feb. 5 - vs. Miss. State |
55.8% |
+6.8% |
|
Feb. 8 - vs. Auburn |
40.5% |
-1.4% |
|
Feb. 12 - at Alabama |
33.0% |
+14.2% |
|
Feb. 15 - at Missouri |
80.6% |
+7.7% |
|
Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee |
37.5% |
+5.0% |
|
Feb. 22 - at Florida |
27.9% |
+7.4% |
|
Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky |
31.3% |
+2.9% |
|
March 2 - vs. LSU |
34.4% |
-1.5% |
|
March 5 - at Tennessee |
12.7% |
+1.5% |
| SEC Record | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
15-3 |
0.00024% |
-0.00016% |
|
14-4 |
0.0069% |
+0.0003% |
|
13-5 |
0.084% |
+0.20% |
|
12-6 |
0.59% |
+0.19% |
|
11-7 |
2.57% |
+0.87% |
|
10-8 |
7.57% |
+2.36% |
|
9-9 |
15.53% |
+3.94% |
|
8-10 |
22.48% |
+3.57% |
|
7-11 |
23.03% |
+0.38% |
|
6-12 |
16.57% |
-3.20% |
|
5-13 |
8.22% |
-4.16% |
|
4-14 |
2.72% |
-2.70% |
|
3-15 |
0.57% |
-1.02% |
|
2-16 |
0.067% |
-0.22% |
|
1-17 |
0.0034% |
-0.027% |