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Published Feb 11, 2022
Updated ESPN BPI projections: How many more wins for Hogs?
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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Arkansas opened what many consider the toughest stretch of its schedule with a bang, knocking off No. 1 Auburn on Tuesday.

The win improved the Razorbacks to 19-5 overall and 8-3 in SEC play, significantly improving their chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

With seven regular-season games remaining, the question is now how high of a seed Arkansas can get in the dance. That will likely be dictated by how many more games it can win down the stretch.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index still favors the Razorbacks in only one more game - at Missouri next Tuesday - but that does not mean it predicts them to win just that game.

In fact, using the game-by-game BPI projections listed below, it is actually most likely that Arkansas goes 3-4 over its final seven games. However, it also isn't a stretch that it finishes 4-3 or 5-2 -- especially when you factor in how well Arkansas has played of late.

As things currently stand, the Razorbacks' most likely final record is now 22-9 overall and 11-7 in SEC play, which has a 31.2 percent chance of happening.

Here are the projections for each of Arkansas' remaining regular-season games, followed by its possible final regular-season records...

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Arkansas' Game-by-Game SEC Projections
GameArkansas' chance to winChance since last week

Feb. 12 - at Alabama

30.0%

+1.2%

Feb. 15 - at Missouri

81.8%

+1.2%

Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee

38.1%

-4.6%

Feb. 22 - at Florida

37.0%

+2.9%

Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky

33.3%

-0.2%

March 2 - vs. LSU

49.6%

+2.5%

March 5 - at Tennessee

13.0%

-2.1%

Projecting Arkansas' Record
Record (SEC)LikelihoodChange since last week

26-5 (15-3)

0.074%

+0.053%

25-6 (14-4)

1.16%

+0.80%

24-7 (13-5)

6.77%

+4.35%

23-8 (12-6)

19.89%

+10.89%

22-9 (11-7)

31.88%

+11.76%

21-10 (10-8)

27.50%

-0.53%

20-11 (9-9)

11.27%

-12.90%

19-12 (8-10)

1.45%

-10.83%