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Published Feb 4, 2022
Updated ESPN BPI projections: How will Hogs finish in 2nd half of SEC play?
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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The first half of conference play is in the books for Arkansas. After a slow start, the Razorbacks have rallied and are tied for third in the SEC standings with a 6-3 mark.

Replicating that record over the second half of the conference slate will be tough, though, as Arkansas is favored in just two of its last nine games, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index.

The Razorbacks have a 63.9 percent chance to beat Mississippi State in Fayetteville on Saturday, plus they're overwhelming favorites (80.6%) to beat Missouri on the road.

Even though it is an underdog, Arkansas has at least a 40 percent chance to win three other games on the schedule - home matchups with Auburn, Tennessee and LSU.

Needing only three more to reach 20 wins in the regular season and guarantee a .500 or better finish in conference play, the Razorbacks seem to be in good shape for the NCAA Tournament.

As things currently stand, the Razorbacks' most likely final SEC record - which can be calculated with the BPI's game-by-game projections below - is now 10-8 at 28.0%.

Here are the projections for each of Arkansas' remaining regular-season games, followed by its possible final regular-season records...

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Arkansas' Game-by-Game SEC Projections
GameArkansas' chance to winChance since last week

Feb. 5 - vs. Miss. State

63.9%

+3.7%

Feb. 8 - vs. Auburn

41.3%

-0.7%

Feb. 12 - at Alabama

28.8%

+1.6%

Feb. 15 - at Missouri

80.6%

+0.5%

Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee

42.7%

+2.8%

Feb. 22 - at Florida

34.1%

+10.4%

Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky

33.5%

-0.1%

March 2 - vs. LSU

47.1%

+5.7%

March 5 - at Tennessee

15.1%

+0.4%

Projecting Arkansas' Record
Record (SEC)LikelihoodChange since last week

26-5 (15-3)

0.021%

+0.012%

25-6 (14-4)

0.36%

+0.20%

24-7 (13-5)

2.42%

+1.11%

23-8 (12-6)

9.00%

+3.30%

22-9 (11-7)

20.12%

+5.02%

21-10 (10-8)

28.03%

+2.76%

20-11 (9-9)

24.17%

-2.65%

19-12 (8-10)

12.28%

-5.29%

18-13 (7-11)

3.26%

-3.40%

17-14 (6-12)

0.33%

-0.96%