Updated ESPN BPI projections: Winning streak breathes life into Hogs
Having lost five of six games and started SEC play 0-3, Arkansas' hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament were on life support earlier this month
Even before their loss at Texas A&M, which likely dropped the odds even lower, the Razorbacks had just a 14.1 percent chance of reaching 20 wins in the regular season, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index.
Fast forward a couple of weeks that included an upset win at LSU sandwiched between dominant home wins over Missouri and South Carolina, the postseason picture looks much better for Arkansas.
The BPI now gives the Razorbacks slightly better than a 50/50 chance - 50.4 percent, to be exact - to hit the 20-win mark. There's no guarantee that'd be enough to clinch a spot in the big dance, but the milestone would put them in good position to get an at-large bid.
This is still a critical stretch for Arkansas, as well, as it is favored in each of its next five games, including a matchup with West Virginia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge (71.6 percent chance to win). It is favored in just one of its final eight games.
As things currently stand, the Razorbacks' most likely final SEC record - which can be calculated with the BPI's game-by-game projections below - is now 9-9 at 25.0%.
Here are the projections for each of Arkansas' conference games, followed by its possible SEC records...
| Game | Arkansas' chance to win | Chance since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 22 - vs. Texas A&M |
72.0% |
+3.8% |
|
Jan. 26 - at Ole Miss |
65.8% |
+11.1% |
|
Feb. 2 - at Georgia |
80.0% |
+4.3% |
|
Feb. 5 - vs. Miss. State |
60.8% |
+5.0% |
|
Feb. 8 - vs. Auburn |
40.7% |
+0.2% |
|
Feb. 12 - at Alabama |
24.3% |
-8.7% |
|
Feb. 15 - at Missouri |
79.8% |
-0.8% |
|
Feb. 19 - vs. Tennessee |
41.7% |
+4.2% |
|
Feb. 22 - at Florida |
29.1% |
+1.2% |
|
Feb. 26 - vs. Kentucky |
31.7% |
+0.4 |
|
March 2 - vs. LSU |
39.2% |
+4.8% |
|
March 5 - at Tennessee |
15.0% |
+2.3% |
| SEC Record | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
15-3 |
0.0041% |
+0.0039% |
|
14-4 |
0.082% |
+0.075% |
|
13-5 |
0.69% |
+0.61% |
|
12-6 |
3.25% |
+2.66% |
|
11-7 |
9.64% |
+7.07% |
|
10-8 |
18.89% |
+11.32% |
|
9-9 |
24.96% |
+9.43% |
|
8-10 |
22.35% |
-0.13% |
|
7-11 |
13.42% |
-9.61% |
|
6-12 |
5.26% |
-11.31% |
|
5-13 |
1.28% |
-6.94% |
|
4-14 |
0.17% |
-2.55% |
|
3-15 |
0.010% |
-0.56% |