Using ESPN's FPI to make over/under win total bets in the SEC

Exactly what college football looks like in 2020 is still up in the air because of the coronavirus pandemic, but Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek revealed Monday that he is planning on the season starting on time.

Obviously things could change between now and Sept. 5, but that optimism has us looking forward to exciting games, great storylines and the pageantry that accompanies the sport every year.

Another aspect of college football beloved by many is gambling. Although we're still a few months away from getting a full slate of lines for the opening week of games, several sports books have already put out win totals.

ESPN has also released its Football Power Index (FPI) projections, assigning a percentage every team has to win each game on its schedule.

Using those figures, HawgBeat was able to crunch the numbers and determine the FPI's confidence in each SEC team hitting the over or under. The results - using the win total posted on VegasInsider.com - are in the chart below and listed in order of confidence.

For example, Arkansas has an 87.8 percent chance to win at least four games and go over the 3.5 win total it was given. The Razorbacks' odds of hitting the over are minus-105, which means a $100 bet would yield $95.24 in winnings. (The winnings listed in the chart below are all based on a $100 bet.)

It's also worth noting that the odds of winning exactly the number of games in VegasInsider's win totals - resulting in a push - is included in the FPI confidence percentage. For example, Missouri has a 63.7 percent chance to win six or more games and a 21.7 percent chance to win exactly five, which is how we came up with the 85.4 percent in the confidence column. (You wouldn't win money if the Tigers go 5-7, but you also wouldn't lose money.)

To get an idea of how accurate the FPI is when it comes to predicting the over/under, we looked back at last year's preseason projections.

It was correct for only six of the teams, with one push, so you would have lost money if you bet on every team using the FPI. However, if you bet on only the seven most confident picks by the FPI - or the top half of the conference - you would have had much different results.

Those picks went 4-2-1 and would have yielded $147.62 in winnings had you placed a $100 bet on each of them.

HawgBeat will revisit how the FPI performs after the season, assuming we get a full 12-game slate.