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Biggest challenges facing next Arkansas Razorback head coach

Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium hosted decade-low crowd numbers in 2019.
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium hosted decade-low crowd numbers in 2019. (Nikki Chavanelle | HawgBeat.com)

Arkansas's search for a new head football coach isn't likely to stretch on longer than a month after Chad Morris was fired November 10 but finding the new coach is just step one in what will be a hard program turnaround.

The next head hog will be handed over one of the worst conference losing streaks since the inception of the SEC with 19 losses that stretch over three seasons. Not only have the Hogs been bad by SEC standards, but also by their own program standards. Arkansas hasn't had three straight seasons below .500 since World War II.

Here are some of the biggest challenges facing Arkansas's new head coach the day he assumes the role:

2020 Schedule

Considering Arkansas went 2-10 in back-to-back seasons, it's now quite easy to reuse some data we painstakingly dove through to find how team's typically bounce-back after a two-win season.

Only roughly 33 percent of teams that have gone 2-10 in the 2000s were able to reach six wins the next season–just nine teams. Win totals increased by roughly 2.85 in year two, so if you're generous you could make a safe estimate that Arkansas could go 5-7 next season.

HOWEVER...

Arkansas doesn't have four non-power 5 opponents to face in 2020, unlike in 2019. The Hogs will take on Nevada (7-5) at home before three road games – at Notre Dame (10-2), at Mississippi State (6-6) and in Dallas against Texas A&M (7-5). Then they'll play FCS Charleston Southern (6-6), Alabama (10-2) and LSU (12-0) in back-to-back-to-back games at home.

There's a strong possibility Arkansas only has one or two wins in the front half of the season. Losing will be tough on a rebuilding locker room, so that's a very large challenge the new head coach has to face.

On top of that, Arkansas will go toe-to-toe against Tennessee, which after a bad start this season ended up finishing third in the SEC East.

There won't be any home field advantage in next year's Battle Line Rivalry game either as the teams play at a neutral site–Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Nevada, Southern Charleston and ULM look like the only automatic wins you could take to the bank–and that's still assuming a lot.

Recruiting

Though this coaching search has been carried out with the early signing day on Dec. 18 in mind, it's much more likely that Arkansas will be cobbling 70% of the 2020 class together for the February signing period anyways.

One of the absolute top priorities will be signing a quarterback. Luckily, the top quarterback in the state, Jacolby Criswell, was born and raised a Hog fan. The previous staff offered the 3-star but didn't make him a priority. The UNC commit is looking to delay early signing in order to see who is hired on the Hill and if that'd be a good fit.

There will always be an opportunity to flip committed prospects from other programs outside the SEC, if they don't sign early, but there are also still over 260 uncommitted players rated 3-stars or better–and who also live within Arkansas's recruiting footprint. The new coach and his staff may also have recruiting ties to other states outside the footprint, further expanding the choices they'll have.

The class does not need to wow in the rankings by any means, most rational folks will understand that it takes multiple years of recruiting to sign one class in the top 20. It just needs to have enough "hits" to sustain talent, and hopefully the new staff will "coach em up," as they say.

Arkansas has managed to hold on to six 2020 commits, including the three in-state commits Jashaud Stewart, Catrell Wallace and Blayne Toll. All of Arkansas's commits currently are on the defensive side of the ball.

The new coach will need to be very aware of the roster depth, where the biggest needs are, where they can afford to take projects and where they need immediate help. Getting a class full of duds will only extend the time it takes for the program to reach six wins again.

As for immediate help, the transfer portal will need to be utilized well. The JUCO ranks are good too, though that can be a gamble. Currently in the portal are 110+ graduate transfers, roughly 65 of them are from Power 5 programs.

The Arkansas brand has been tarnished, so it's not as easy to recruit to as it once was, but a coach with enough pizzaz (and hopefully a history of winning and development) can convince enough decent players to come help turn this program around. It'll be hard, but it can be done.

Roster Depth

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