Despite top-5 ranking, Hogs haven't secured home-field advantage for NCAAT
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Despite ranking in the top five of every poll, Arkansas’ status as a regional host — much less a national top-eight seed — is far from secure with three weeks left in the regular season.
The Razorbacks are 34-11 overall and have a two-game lead in the SEC West with a 14-7 conference record.
That would normally have Arkansas firmly in the driver’s seat to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament at Baum-Walker Stadium, but the latest projections from D1Baseball and Baseball America have it as the No. 9 and No. 10 overall seed, respectively.
A closer look at the metrics reveals why the Razorbacks’ seeding doesn’t match up with their position in those sites’ top-25 rankings. It also paints a clear picture of how much work they still have to do to lock up home field advantage in the postseason.
After losing its first midweek game of the season Tuesday night, a 6-4 home loss to Missouri State, Arkansas fell four spots to No. 29 in the RPI. That is significant because the RPI — even with its flaws — is a primary tool used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
Over the last 10 tournaments, only nine teams outside of the RPI top 10 earned a top-eight national seed, with only one of those in the last four years. Out of that group, the lowest-ranked team in the RPI was Texas Tech in 2016, which was the 5 seed despite being No. 14 in the RPI.
During that same time span, a whopping 96.9 percent of regional hosts were in the top 20 of the RPI. That goes up to 97.5 percent over the last five tournaments, with the only two exceptions being 2019 Ole Miss and 2018 Texas, both of which were No. 22 in the RPI.
You’d have to go back to 2011 to find a regional host with an RPI comparable to Arkansas’ current ranking. That year, Oregon State and UCLA hosted despite being No. 31 and No. 34, respectively.
However, it’s worth noting that UCLA won the Pac-10 championship and Oregon State finished one game behind the Bruins — but they were tied in the standings when the NCAA unveiled the regional hosts a day ahead of the full bracket, when games were still being played.
Even though its 34-11 (14-7 SEC) record isn’t far off from its 34-8 (15-6 SEC) mark at this point last season, this is a vastly different conversation because Arkansas spent much of 2021 at No. 1 in the polls and in the RPI.
The biggest difference is in the level of competition.
Last year, the Razorbacks played six of the other seven top-eight national seeds and another three regional hosts during the regular season, posting an incredible 18-3 record against them. Included in that was a 5-1 mark against non-conference foes who were in the top 20 of the RPI.
This year, the Razorbacks have played — or are scheduled to play — just three teams projected as 1- or 2-seeds in the regional round. They swept LSU at home, but lost two of three at Texas A&M. The other is Auburn, which they play on the road this weekend.
Only three of Arkansas’ non-conference games have been against top-100 RPI teams and it lost two of them — against No. 33 Stanford and No. 85 Missouri State. The Razorbacks did beat No. 46 Louisiana-Lafayette. That’s a stark contrast to their 9-2, 5-4, 8-2 and 6-4 records in such games the last four years, not counting 2020.
It helps that Arkansas is in the SEC, which — despite it being widely considered a down year for the league — is still the No. 1 conference in the country, according to the RPI. However, the three teams it avoided in the regular season are currently first (Tennessee), second (Georgia) and fourth (South Carolina) in the SEC East standings.
The result has been one of the Razorbacks’ worst schedules in recent memory. Their non-conference slate is 255th nationally (ahead of only Mississippi State at No. 273 in the SEC) and their overall strength of schedule is 91st, which is by far the worst in the conference.
In 2021, Arkansas led the county in strength of schedule, making its superb record even more incredible. It was No. 14 in 2019, No. 3 in 2018 and No. 36 in 2017.
Luckily for the Razorbacks, they still have a few opportunities to bolster their strength of schedule and RPI. Their next two series — at Auburn (No. 4 RPI) and vs. Vanderbilt (No. 11 RPI) — are against high-ranked teams in the RPI and then they end the regular season at Alabama (No. 49 RPI) before heading to the SEC Tournament in Hoover, Ala.
In addition to RPI reasons, this weekend looms large because Auburn is one of three teams — along with LSU and Texas A&M — tied for second in the SEC West at 12-9.
Win this series and the Razorbacks would own the tiebreaker over Auburn and LSU and be in the driver’s seat to win the division — which has equated to a top-eight national seed every year since 2014. That year, Ole Miss hosted a regional, but was not a national seed likely due to its No. 14 ranking in the RPI.
Losses in these final three weekends, especially with two of them being on the road, shouldn’t hurt Arkansas too much because of the quality of opponents, but it needs a strong finish to the regular season to get within the RPI’s typical hosting range.