HawgBeat Preview: Arkansas opens SEC play vs. Missouri
Arkansas opens conference play with three games against Missouri at Baum-Walker Stadium this weekend. Coming off a midweek sweep of Western Illinois, the Razorbacks are 14-2.
“We’re nowhere we need to get, but we’re definitely in good shape right now after 16 games,” head coach Dave Van Horn said. “Physically, win-wise and mentally we ought to feel good about where we’re at.
“Now the competition is getting ready to heat up and league play is 30 games. You don’t want to get too fired up just for one game or one series because you have to play another one.”
Here is a preview of the first of 10 SEC series for Arkansas…
Schedule (TV)
Friday, March 15 - 6:30 p.m. CT (SECN+)
Saturday, March 16 - 2 p.m. CT (SECN+)
Sunday, March 17 - 1:30 p.m. CT (SECN+)
All three games will be streamed on SEC Network-plus, meaning they can be watched online on ESPN3.com or on the WatchESPN app.
Weather Report
It will be another cold night of baseball Friday, with temperatures starting in the mid-40s and falling into the upper-30s by the end of the SEC opener. There will be some wind out of the north-northwest early on, but it will lessen as the game goes on.
Saturday and Sunday should be nice, with highs in the 50s, light winds and sunshine in the forecast, according to the Weather Channel.
Arkansas’ Starting Rotation (season stats)
Friday - R-Jr. RHP Isaiah Campbell (4 games/4 starts, 3-0, 3.09 ERA, 33 K/3 BB, 23 1/3 IP)
Saturday - Fr. RHP Connor Noland (4 games/4 starts, 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 13 K/5 BB, 16 2/3 IP)
Sunday - R-Jr. RHP Cody Scroggins (4 games/3 starts, 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 26 K/5 BB, 14 IP)
For the first time this season, head coach Dave Van Horn will be using the exact same starting rotation in the same order as the week before.
In the last two weeks, Campbell has started looking like the ace Arkansas hoped he would be. He’s given up only two earned runs on 10 hits and one walk while striking out 23 batters in 13 innings.
Noland had the worst numbers of Arkansas three starters against Louisiana Tech, but his final line - four runs (three earned) in five innings - was a little deceiving. The first run was made possible when a third strike got away from Zack Plunkett and the other three came on a wind-aided three-run home run that knocked him out of the longest outing of his young career.
Perhaps the most encouraging outing of the weekend, though, came from Scroggins. He was dominant against the Bulldogs, striking out 11 and allowing only two hits and one walk in six shutout innings.
Previously, his career-long appearance was 3 2/3 innings two weeks earlier at USC and he failed to get out of the fourth inning against Stony Brook, so Van Horn was prepared to go to the bullpen early Sunday, but he didn’t need to.
“I think his arm is built up to the number of pitches and physically he’s ready to do it,” Van Horn said. “If he can do it again this weekend, it’d be great. If he would have faded after three, we would have gone with somebody else, but he didn’t.”
Scroggins is racking up strikeouts at a high rate. In fact, his 16.7 strikeouts per nine innings average would rank second nationally, but he’s two innings shy of the qualifying minimum.
In the Polls
Arkansas is ranked as high as No. 10 in the USA Today Coaches Poll and is a top-15 team in most of the other rankings. It is tied for No. 13 in the HawgBeat Composite Poll, which combines the major college baseball top-25 lists. Missouri is not ranked.
Scouting the Opponent
Missouri’s starting rotation (season stats)
Friday - Jr. LHP Jacob Cantleberry (4 games/3 starts, 2-0, 2.91 ERA, 33 K/9 BB, 21 2/3 IP)
Saturday - Jr. LHP TJ Sikkema (5 games/3 starts, 2-0, 0.46 ERA, 25 K/4 BB, 19 2/3 IP)
Sunday - Sr. LHP Tyler LaPlante (4 games/4 starts, 1-1, 3.43 ERA, 15 K/3 BB, 21 IP)
Not much is expected from Missouri this season, as it was picked to finish last in the SEC East in the preseason coaches poll and landed no players on the preseason All-SEC teams.
Sure enough, the Tigers have needed a five-game winning streak to improve to 11-5 (.688) and are currently the only team in the conference with a winning percentage below .700.
“For us, it’s an SEC weekend series, doesn’t matter what the records are going into the game,” Campbell said. “It’s an SEC team. They’re going to give us their best, we’re going to give them our best.”
As an SEC team, Missouri still has some “dudes” at third-year head coach Steve Bieser’s disposal - the most notable of which will actually take the mound Saturday.
Now in his third year with the program, Sikkema is “the real deal,” Van Horn said. Two years ago, the left-hander came out of the bullpen and limited Arkansas to one earned run in four innings.
Since then, he’s gotten even better. Sikkema posted a 1.72 ERA over his final three starts last season and has carried that success into 2019. In addition to his minuscule 0.46 ERA, he is holding opponents to a .186 batting average.
Van Horn said Sikkema has a fastball between 88-94 miles per hour, as well as a “really good” changeup and “good” slider.
“If you look at his numbers, ERA, people haven’t done much against him,” Van Horn said. “He’s a guy that he may give you a shot at him here or there and…if you get a chance to score, you better score.”
The Tigers’ other two starters are also lefties, with Cantleberry joining the rotation after playing at JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto the last two years. LaPlante was also one of Missouri’s starters last season.
Out of the bullpen, sophomore right-hander Konnor Ash is Missouri’s most used pitcher with seven appearances. He has a 4.76 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings, but did throw 3 1/3 innings Wednesday against Arkansas State, so he probably won’t pitch until Saturday or Sunday.
Two of the Tigers’ most highly touted freshmen come out of the bullpen, too. Right-hander Seth Halvorsen and left-hander Trae Robertson turned down the MLB Draft and have respectable ERAs of 3.38 and 3.00, respectively, but have issued a combined 11 walks in 11 1/3 innings.
A pair of right-handers, senior Cameron Dulle and sophomore Ian Bedell, appear to split the closing duties, combining for three saves, a 0.93 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks in 19 1/3 innings.
Offensively, five of Missouri’s everyday starters are hitting at least .345, led by junior shortstop Chris Cornelius’ .411 batting average. He also has three home runs and a team-high 18 RBIs.
The top player, though, is junior center fielder Kameron Misner. A preseason second-team All-American by Baseball America and Perfect Game, he leads the team with five home runs while also hitting .393 with 14 RBIs, 20 walks and 10 stolen bases on 10 attempts.
Two of the other starters are freshmen. Left fielder Josh Holt Jr. is off to a 5-for-14 (.357) start and has blazing speed, while designated hitter Luke Mann - the 2018 Missouri Gatorade Player of the Year - is hitting .281 with two home runs and 16 walks and has also posted a 2.25 ERA in four innings on the mound.
Arkansas Connection
The pipeline from the Natural State to Columbia, Mo., seen in football (Taylor Powell, Barrett Banister, Joe Britton, Markell Utsey and Akial Byers) and men’s basketball (Mitchell Smith) extended to baseball this year.
Missouri signed Thomas Broyles, a Fayetteville native and the grandson of legendary football coach Frank Broyles, out of Northwest Florida State College.
He has appeared in eight games and made three starts in the outfield. Although he is just 3 for 14 (.214) with one RBI and two stolen bases, he did hit .299 as a freshman at the junior college level.
In addition to being Frank Broyles’ grandson, the sophomore is also the younger brother of Franco Broyles, who lettered for Arkansas’ baseball team in 2011.
Stat of the Week
An interesting matchup to watch this weekend will Missouri’s plate discipline against Arkansas’ pitchers.
The Razorbacks have proven to be elite when it comes to striking out their opponents while not giving them free passes, as their strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.07 ranks sixth nationally.
However, they have done that against teams that strikeout a lot more than they walk. That won’t be the case with the Tigers. Missouri is tied for 17th in the country with 99 walks.
Throw in 14 hit by pitches and the Tigers have actually received more free passes (113) than times it has struck out (112). That is a big reason they have an identical on-base percentage as the Razorbacks despite having a batting average 17 points lower.
Arkansas can’t afford to give Missouri any extra runners because it is dangerous on the base paths with 39 steals on 45 attempts, so limiting those free passes will be a key to success this weekend.
Stat Comparison - Arkansas | Missouri (national rank, out of 297 teams)
Batting average: .310 (15th) | .293 (46th)
Slugging percentage: .488 (14th) | .438 (49th)
On-base percentage: .413 (21st) | .413 (t-23rd)
Home runs: 17 (t-27th) | 16 (t-36th)
Runs/game: 8.1 (t-25th) | 7.6 (34th)
ERA: 2.94 (26th) | 3.66 (66th)
WHIP: 1.06 (12th) | 1.41 (116th)
Strikeouts/9 innings: 11.5 (5th) | 10.4 (26th)
Strikeout-to-walk ratio: 4.07 (6th) | 2.38 (77th)
Fielding percentage: .971 (98th) | .979 (29th)
Stolen bases/game: 2.06 (23rd) | 2.44 (12th)
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