HawgBeat Preview: Diamond Hogs hosting No. 2 Mississippi State
Arkansas will have its toughest challenge of the 2019 season when it welcomes Mississippi State to Baum-Walker Stadium for a three-game series this weekend. Here is a preview of the matchup…
Schedule (TV)
Thursday, April 18 - 8 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
Friday, April 19 - 6:30 p.m. CT (SECN+)
Saturday, April 20 - 2 p.m. CT (SECN+)
The first game of the series will be televised on ESPNU, while the second two will only be streamed on SEC Network-plus. As always, the entire series can be watched online on ESPN3.com or on the WatchESPN app.
Weather Report
Thunderstorms are expected to hit Northwest Arkansas late Wednesday and early Thursday, with rain continuing well into the morning, but it should clear out before the 8 p.m. first pitch. According to the Weather Channel, though, it will be chilly with temperatures in the low-50s.
Rain shouldn’t be a factor either of the last two games, either, but temperatures will likely be in the 50s with strong winds Friday evening. Saturday will be the nicest weather because the high is 72 degrees and it won’t be as windy.
Arkansas’ Starting Rotation (season stats)
Thursday - R-Jr. RHP Isaiah Campbell (9 games/9 starts, 6-1, 2.45 ERA, 68 K/10 BB, 58 2/3 IP)
Friday - Fr. LHP Patrick Wicklander (14 games/7 starts, 3-1, 4.25 ERA, 52 K/23 BB, 36 IP)
Saturday - TBA
Head coach Dave Van Horn has finally switched up his starting rotation, keeping Campbell in the first game and leaving the third as “TBA,” but swapping freshmen for Game 2. Instead of right-hander Connor Noland, Wicklander will made his second career SEC start.
The move is not surprising considering how well Wicklander has pitched as a starter, with a 1.98 ERA in 27 1/3 innings across seven starts. That includes five scoreless innings at Auburn two weeks ago. He has not been nearly as effective out of the pen, with an 11.42 ERA in 8 2/3 innings across seven relief appearances.
It also didn’t help that Noland has really struggled in two of his last four outings, failing to get out of the second at Alabama and not recording an out last weekend at Vanderbilt. He has thrown a full five innings just once in 10 starts and his ERA has ballooned to 5.60.
Because he threw just 15 pitches against the Commodores, Noland got the start in Tuesday’s win over UAPB and threw two scoreless innings. Van Horn said he would be available out of the bullpen beginning Saturday.
Despite what has surely been a disappointing week, losing his spot in the weekend rotation and moving to the role of midweek starter/weekend reliever, Noland has handled it well.
“He’s gotten taken out of games early (and) he doesn’t complain,” Van Horn said. “He just works and he realizes how tough this league is and it’s unforgiving.
“He bounced back (against UAPB) and I’m sure the next time he gets the ball, he’ll do well and continue to climb back up and be a big part of our pitching staff like he is.”
There haven’t been any issues with Campbell as the team’s ace. Although he took his first loss of the season last week, he gave up just three earned runs in a season-high 7 2/3 innings and looked really good against the Commodores’ dangerous lineup.
This is the third straight weekend the Razorbacks have left Game 3 open. The start will likely go to whoever is available, as they will try to do everything they can to win the first two games of the series. Redshirt junior right-hander Cody Scroggins (2-0, 4.54 ERA) is an option, but there’s a chance he could be used in relief before then.
Kostyshock Returns
Arkansas’ bullpen will receive a nice boost this weekend as junior right-hander Jacob Kostyshock returns after missing the last two weeks with elbow inflammation.
“He should be good to go this weekend,” Van Horn said. “We’re excited about getting him back. He’s been going full go in his bullpens. He’ll be ready to pitch.”
He will be a welcome addition to what has been a thin bullpen. With a fastball that has touched 98 miles per hour, Kostyshock has a 1.96 ERA and is holding opponents to a .191 batting average in 18 1/3 innings this season.
Luckily for the Razorbacks, there was nothing structurally wrong in his arm and it sounds like the rest he got by not pitching against Auburn or Vanderbilt was all he needed, so he shouldn’t have any restrictions against Mississippi State.
“It’s not like we’re just going to throw him in here and there,” Van Horn said. “We’ll put him in there in the middle of the fire. He’ll have to go in and maybe lock it down or keep it where it is or whatever the case may be.“
In the Polls
This will be yet another showdown between ranked teams, as Arkansas is No. 11 and Mississippi State is No. 2 in the latest HawgBeat Composite Poll. It will be a top-10 matchup in terms of the RPI because the Razorbacks are No. 7 and the Bulldogs are No. 10.
Scouting the Opponent
Mississippi State’s starting rotation (season stats)
Thursday - R-Jr. LHP Ethan Small (9 games/9 starts, 4-0, 1.83 ERA, 94 K/15 BB, 54 IP)
Friday - Sr. RHP Peyton Plumlee (11 games/7 starts, 2-2, 3.35 ERA, 38 K/16 BB, 37 2/3 IP)
Saturday - Fr. RHP JT Ginn (9 games/9 starts, 7-1, 3.35 ERA, 64 K/6 BB, 48 1/3 IP)
The Bulldogs are led by first-year head coach Chris Lemonis, who is essentially their third coach in as many years. Gary Henderson served as the interim coach nearly all of 2018 after Andy Cannizaro resigned following the opening weekend of the season.
He has Mississippi State in a really good spot, leading the tightly bunched SEC West by half of a game over Texas A&M and ranked second nationally in several polls.
It helps that he inherited a loaded team coming off a surprise trip to the College World Series.
Perhaps the biggest key to the Bulldogs’ success has been senior Jake Mangum, who turned down the MLB Draft for a second straight year to return to school.
“I wasn’t real happy,” Van Horn said with a smile when asked about him turning down the pros. “I knew we had to get him out for at least three more games.”
His numbers are incredible: .398 batting average (third in the SEC), 70 hits (leads the SEC - 14 more than anyone else), 17 doubles (tied with Dominic Fletcher for most in the SEC), 47 runs scored (tied for the SEC lead) and 19 stolen bases on 24 attempts (second in the SEC). He also hasn’t made an error in 82 chances in center field.
Needing eight more hits to break the all-SEC record held by LSU’s Eddy Furniss, Mangum is a career .364 hitter and is the fourth-toughest player to strikeout this season, averaging one every 17.6 at bats. In 11 career games against Arkansas, he is 15 for 44 (.341) with eight runs and one RBI.
However, as the leadoff batter, Mangum has just set the table for the rest of Mississippi State’s stacked lineup, which features four other players hitting at least .330.
Sophomore shortstop Jordan Westburg leads the team with 42 RBIs and is hitting .358, with senior right fielder Elijah MacNamee right behind him at .356 and 39 RBIs. They also have six and five home runs, respectively.
The Bulldogs’ top power hitter is sophomore second baseman Justin Foscue, who has 10 home runs to go along with his .346 batting average and 39 RBIs. Junior catcher Dustin Skelton also has eight home runs and 32 RBIs with a .330 batting average.
Mississippi State is also really good on the mound with a legitimate SEC ace in Small. After striking out 15 batters in six innings against Alabama last week, he is now averaging 15.7 strikeouts per nine innings, which ranks second nationally.
Although opponents are hitting just .170 against him and he’s given up just 11 earned runs this season, Small has struggled with the long ball, allowing five home runs.
Ginn has been the Bulldogs’ No. 2 starter this season, but moved to Game 3 last week to get an extra day of rest after experiencing some shoulder soreness the week before against Tennessee. He responded well, though, throwing four scoreless innings against the Crimson Tide.
“We were probably being a little precautious, but he’s such a competitor,” Lemonis said Tuesday. “He felt great, so he was good to go afterwards. His feel could have been a little bit better, but his stuff was really good.”
The fact that Mississippi State has Ginn on its roster is somewhat surprising. Named the National Player of the Year by USA Today, he was a first-round pick by the Dodgers in last summer’s MLB Draft, but he turned down a reported $2.4 million offer to go to school. It’s been a good move so far, as his 10.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks sixth nationally.
Those two pitchers bookend the rotation, with Plumlee getting the ball in Game 2. He has put up solid numbers in his first season back from a one-year suspension for failing a drug test during the 2017 Baton Rouge Super Regional.
The Bulldogs also have a deep bullpen that features several veteran arms.
Redshirt junior Trysten Barlow is the top lefty. He leads the team with a 1.56 ERA and has 24 strikeouts to only one walk in 17 1/3 innings spread across 16 appearances.
Junior right-handers Colby White (2.70 ERA in 16 2/3 innings) and Riley Self (3.07 ERA in 14 2/3 innings) are dependable, while senior right-handers Jared Liebelt (2.73 ERA in 26 1/3 innings) and Cole Gordon (4.50 ERA in 22 innings) can be counted on to close out games. They have three and eight saves, respectively.
Stat of the Week
Arkansas’ bats have really heated up over the last two games. Sure, one of them was against UAPB, but the other was against a very good Vanderbilt team.
Against the Commodores, the Razorbacks racked up 22 hits in 47 at bats. They went 16 for 34 in just six innings against the Golden Lions.
That means over the two-game stretch, Arkansas went 38 for 81 - an impressive .469 batting average. Even though the Razorbacks are 37 games into the season, that still had a big impact on the season batting average, raising it 12 points to .299.
Stat Comparison - Arkansas | Mississippi State (national rank, out of 297 teams)
Batting average: .299 (23rd) | .327 (3rd)
Slugging percentage: .473 (17th) | .505 (5th)
On-base percentage: .398 (28th) | .404 (19th)
Home runs: 41 (t-26th) | 43 (t-18th)
Runs/game: 7.4 (25th) | 8.8 (5th)
ERA: 4.12 (81st) | 3.20 (13th)
WHIP: 1.33 (54th) | 1.12 (5th)
Strikeouts/9 innings: 9.6 (29th) | 11.4 (1st)
Strikeout-to-walk ratio: 2.29 (60th) | 3.99 (1st)
Fielding percentage: .971 (100th) | .973 (77th)
Stolen bases/game: 1.41 (68th) | 1.24 (t-100th)
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