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Published Apr 5, 2019
HawgBeat Preview: Hogs head to Auburn for another top-25 matchup
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
Managing Editor
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@NWAHutch

Arkansas continues its brutal stretch of SEC weekends with a road trip to Auburn. The Razorbacks are riding a three-game losing streak after dropping their final two games against Ole Miss and a midweek game against UALR.

“I think it’s probably good that we’re getting out of town,” head coach Dave Van Horn said after Tuesday’s loss. “We’re playing a really good team on the road and going into (Tuesday) they’ve only lost one game at home all year. They’re awfully good.”

Here is a preview of the Auburn series…

Schedule (TV)

Friday, April 5 (Game 1) - 2 p.m. CT (SECN+)

Friday, April 5 (Game 2) - 45 minutes later (SECN+)

Saturday, April 6 - 2 p.m. CT (SECN+)

Thunderstorms in the Auburn, Ala., area forced Thursday's game to be postponed until 2 p.m. Friday. The two teams will now play a doubleheader, with Game 2 slated to start 45 minutes after the conclusion of the first game.

All three games will now only be streamed on SEC Network-plus, meaning they can be watched online on ESPN3.com or on the WatchESPN app.

Weather Report

Bad weather has already altered this series, as mentioned above, and might not be done. Friday looks good, with just a 15 percent chance of rain at 2 p.m. and decreasing to 0-5 percent the rest of the day.

However, there is a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms beginning at 2 p.m. Saturday. They could try to move first pitch up, but there is a chance of rain pretty much all day.

Temperatures should be nice for Friday's games, as well. There is a high of 74 degrees and the entire first game should be played in the 70s. It might dip into the mid-60s by the end of the second game.

Arkansas’ Starting Rotation (season stats)

Friday (Game 1) - R-Jr. RHP Isaiah Campbell (7 games/7 starts, 6-0, 2.03 ERA, 56 K/7 BB, 44 1/3 IP)

Friday (Game 2) - Fr. RHP Connor Noland (8 games/7 starts, 0-1, 4.40 ERA, 20 K/9 BB, 28 2/3 IP)

Saturday - TBA

With the Auburn series starting on Thursday, Campbell and Noland will be pitching on one day’s shorter rest. Who starts Game 3 will depend on how the first two games play out.

If the Razorbacks win Game 1 and have a chance to win Game 2, Van Horn could use right-hander Cody Scroggins (2-0, 3.21 ERA) - who has been the third weekend starter - out of the bullpen in an effort to win the series.

The injury to Jacob Kostyshock and recent struggles of other relievers has forced Van Horn to consider all of his options. If Scroggins is used on Friday, Arkansas will have to piece it together Saturday with whoever it has left, with freshman Patrick Wicklander a possibility to start with a limited pitch count after throwing 3 1/3 innings Tuesday against UALR.

In the Polls

This is the second of four straight top-25 weekend matchups for No. 12 Arkansas, as Auburn checks in at No. 17 in the latest HawgBeat Composite Poll. The Tigers are also No. 5 in the RPI, while the Razorbacks dropped eight spots to No. 13 in the RPI with the midweek loss to UALR.

Scouting the Opponent

Auburn’s starting rotation (season stats)

Friday (Game 1) - So. RHP Tanner Burns (7 games/7 starts, 4-0, 1.40 ERA, 59 K/10 BB, 45 IP)

Friday (Game 2) - Fr. LHP Brooks Fuller (8 games/2 starts, 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 14 K/16 BB, 21 2/3 IP)

Saturday - TBA

Coming off a season in which it was an extra-innings loss away from reaching the College World Series for the first time in more than two decades, Auburn was picked to finish in the middle of the SEC West just behind Arkansas this year.

The Tigers have maintained a top-25 ranking in head coach Butch Thompson’s fourth season at the helm and are 22-7 overall with a 6-3 mark in conference play. They are also 15-2 at home, having won 14 straight at Plainsman Park before dropping a midweek game to Georgia Tech 9-3 on Tuesday.

On the mound, Auburn lost Casey Mize as the top pick in last year’s MLB Draft, but have replaced him with Burns, who Van Horn has called one of the best pro prospects in the SEC.

Opponents are hitting just .151 against the right-hander, whose best start was a two-hit shutout in which he struck out 15 batters against Cincinnati.

However, because Burns threw 115 pitches last week, Thompson has decided to keep him in his usual Friday spot. Instead, he’ll move Fuller up two days to start Thursday’s series opener because he’s thrown half as many innings as Burns so far this season.

(UPDATE: With a doubleheader now scheduled for Friday, it appears Burns will throw Game 1 to set up a fantastic pitching battle behind him and Campbell. Fuller will presumably throw the second game.)

The freshman left-hander is holding opponent to a .184 batting average, but has struggled some with his command with more walks than strikeouts and three wild pitches.

Much like Arkansas, Auburn is leaving Game 3 as a TBA. Sophomore Jack Owen has highly effective for the Tigers with an SEC-best 0.31 ERA before experiencing some shoulder issues that will keep him out for the third straight weekend against the Razorbacks. The Tigers are also without Davis Daniel, as the junior right-hander experienced some forearm tightness and hasn’t pitched since Opening Day.

Junior left-hander Elliott Anderson has been one of Auburn’s top relievers with a 1.85 ERA in 24 1/3 innings across 13 appearances, while sophomore right-hander Cody Greenhill is the Tigers’ closer with six saves and a 3.63 ERA in 12 appearances.

On paper, Auburn was the only team in the SEC with a returning trio of players comparable to Arkansas’ Casey Martin, Heston Kjerstad and Dominic Fletcher, as Edouard Julien, Will Holland and Steven Williams combined for 41 home runs last season.

Julien, now a sophomore, has continued that production this year, leading the team with six home runs and 29 RBIs to go along with his .284 batting average.

Williams and Holland, however, have seen their averages dip to .250 (from .291) and .229 (from .313), respectively. The pair also have only five home runs and 24 RBIs combined, after putting up 24 homers and 103 RBIs as a pair in 2018.

The Tigers’ top hitter, in terms of batting average, has been freshman Kason Howell (.314), with juniors Rankin Woley (.310) and Conor Davis (.303) also hitting above .300. It’s worth noting that Holland (13 of 14) and Howell (12 of 14) are also Auburn’s top base stealers.

Stat of the Week

One reason for Arkansas’ recent struggles has been its inability to consistently drive in runs. Including the Friday night win over Ole Miss, the Razorbacks have stranded 33 runners on base, including 19 in scoring position, in their last four games.

They were 10 for 40 (.250) with runners on second and/or third base, highlighted - or low-lighted - by an 0-for-7 performance in those situations in Saturday’s one-run loss to the Rebels.

More concerning over the four-game stretch has been Arkansas’ offense late in games. In innings 1-5, the Razorbacks hit .373, but over the final four innings - the sixth through the ninth - they hit just .140. That kept their opponents from having to go deep into their bullpens.

Stat Comparison - Arkansas | Auburn (national rank, out of 297 teams)

Batting average: .294 (36th) | .270 (119th)

Slugging percentage: .457 (26th) | .393 (132nd)

On-base percentage: .393 (38th) | .366 (134th)

Home runs: 30 (t-24th) | 21 (t-89th)

Runs/game: 7.1 (t-36th) | 6.3 (t-92nd)

ERA: 3.65 (50th) | 3.55 (t-41st)

WHIP: 1.24 (25th) | 1.28 (38th)

Strikeouts/9 innings: 10.0 (22nd) | 9.0 (72nd)

Strikeout-to-walk ratio: 2.62 (35th) | 2.48 (47th)

Fielding percentage: .971 (92nd) | .970 (111th)

Stolen bases/game: 1.62 (t-53rd) | 1.62 (t-53rd)

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