The Arkansas Razorbacks have secured six commitments for the 2020 class already and they are four commits ahead of where they were in 2019, but they've recently begun losing out on some of their targets that they've spent a lot of time and effort recruiting.
Chad Morris and his staff attract prospects with their energy and their ability to create relationships but the 2019 football season will have a big impact on whether or not they can build on and repeat their first top-20 class on the Hill. The fact of the matter is, playing at Arkansas isn't a "sexy" pitch right now. This is football after all, and when push comes to shove, elite recruits don't want to spend 3-4 years trying to win an SEC game or two, they want to be coached by the best, compete for a national title and move on to the NFL.
To compete at this level, you have to be recruiting in the top 20 classes consistently. No team has won a national championship in the Rivals era without signing consecutive highly ranked classes in the preceding years.
At the beginning of the spring, we created the HawgBeat Big Board, which is a compilation of all the prospects we perceive to be recruited and coveted most by Arkansas, and since then, 12 prospects have committed elsewhere. Twelve out of about 75 targets really isn't bad when you only have to sign 25 but each elite prospect that comes off the board is replaced with a less coveted player. Only one of the 12 who committed elsewhere committed to a program with just two wins (like Arkansas) in the 2018 season.
What Morris did last year with a limited amount of time to recruit 2019 prospects was truly impressive. They had to come in to Fayetteville, patch together a 2018 class on the fly, identify and offer 2019 prospects and begin creating relationships with them. They sold early playing time and a chance to turn things around on the Hill, but another season in the SEC cellar could damage their recruiting efforts. Mediocre recruiting would lead to more mediocrity on the field, creating a cycle that would be very hard to break.
Winning a couple SEC games in 2019 and gaining bowl eligibility would go a very long way with recruits. The Arkansas coaches have already proven they have what it takes to recruit at a high level but their jobs would get a lot easier with wins to back it up.
Arkansas is now consistently recruiting prospects with many other SEC offers, unlike during the Bielema era, so if they want to continue beating out Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss for recruits and start beating out schools at the top of the conference as well, they have to start by beating them on the field.
The Hogs play four beatable non-conference teams in 2019 but the SEC slate is tricky. The Razorbacks typically put up a good fight against Ole Miss but, in 2019, they play the Rebels in the second game of the season, which means both teams will still be working out kinks and trying to get in a groove. Arkansas may not have even settled on a starting quarterback by the Ole Miss game with Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel destined to battle it out every day this fall.
Kentucky is coming off a historically good season and the Hogs will be on the road for that one. Auburn isn't coming off a fantastic conference showing last season but they have had the Razorbacks' number that last three years.
That leaves Mississippi State and Missouri as the only really possible conference wins. Arkansas has lost six of their last seven games against Mississippi State but they'll get to face the Bulldogs at home this season. Missouri is probably a toss up.
The Arkansas coaches have proven they can do everything they need to do to win elite recruiting battles (get kids interested, get them to visit, get them to officially visit), so the final piece of the puzzle is winning games in the SEC.
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