After a rough stretch that included consecutive non-conference losses to Oklahoma and Hofstra, Arkansas got back on track against Elon. Even with a win and a much better performance, though, Razorback fans expressed concerns in their questions in this month’s mailbag.
Do you see this team making the NCAA Tournament?
I received this question in a ton of different variations following the Hofstra loss. Arkansas’ NET bottomed out at 91 – which is not indicative of an NCAA Tournament team, as highlighted by HawgBeat’s NET Analysis – but there are plenty of opportunities for “resume wins” in conference play.
Currently sitting at 10-2 and ranked 90th in the NET, Arkansas is 0-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 2-1 in Quadrant 2 games, with the Hofstra loss no longer in the Quad 3 category.
With the SEC basketball renaissance, the conference is one of the best in college basketball and can have 6-plus teams in the NCAA Tournament any given year. As it stands, there are eight SEC teams in the top 75 of the NET rankings. Vanderbilt and Arkansas are in the top-100, South Carolina is just outside at 104, and Ole Miss is at 133. Georgia and Missouri are both in the 200s.
Fortunately for Arkansas, the weakest conference opponents will be matchups on the road, as the Hogs are set to take on Georgia, Missouri and Ole Miss away from home. Winning those easier road games is crucial for tournament chances because despite the opponents’ low NET rankings, being on the road looks better on a resume and improves the NET quadrant for the matchup.
In addition to winning those three road games, the Razorbacks have to win the big games at home, including a major non-conference matchup with West Virginia. Arkansas has to win at least three of the home matchups against West Virginia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU.
Winning three of those matchups plus the three weak conference matchups on the road will have Arkansas with 5 or 6 conference wins with a few more winnable home games and tough road games.
The magic number of conference wins for Arkansas to make the NCAA Tournament is nine with a win over West Virginia or ten with a loss to the Mountaineers. Even that is assuming the Hogs win some of the premiere matchups at home. With the incredibly weak non-conference schedule the Razorbacks played, they have to make some noise and win some big games and be at least .500 in conference play.
All in all, it’s doable. The team still has time to mesh, grow and improve, but they need to take care of business in conference early because the end of the year is an absolute gauntlet.
Right this second, with the way they’ve played and their current resume, I would say Arkansas is a bubble team with plenty of time to improve their resume and make the tournament. I think ultimately they will make the NCAA Tournament.
What is up with the defense?
There have been a ton of defensive issues this season for the Razorbacks, but the one that has killed the team the most is the complete absence of perimeter defense.
