FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman considers himself to be old school when it comes to football, but a reliance on analytics last season led to undesirable results for the Razorbacks — and it's something he's changing in 2024.
However, one look at Arkansas' fourth-down conversion percentage from last season and it's difficult to understand why Pittman wants to veer away from his 2023 strategy. In fact, the Razorbacks converted 10-of-16 attempts (63%), the 28th best percentage in the country.
So, why shift away from analytics? Well, according to Pittman, when he used them, it didn't work.
"I went more off of analytics last year than I did off myself," Pittman said on Tuesday. "It was very uncomfortable for me."
Five of the times Arkansas failed to convert on fourth-down came in critical situations — once in an early-season loss to BYU during the third quarter, once against Texas A&M following a timeout which allowed the Aggies to score a quick touchdown before halftime and three times during an embarrassing 7-3 defeat to Mississippi State. Yes, the same game that resulted in then-offensive coordinator Dan Enos' firing the next day.
Even with the success Pittman did have on his in-game decision making, it's clear that the failures — especially when they directly cost the outcome of a game — far outweigh the positives.
"I was 0-fer," Pittman said. "When you’re batting 0-fer in the major leagues, you go down a level. At least I have an opportunity to fix it. You’re always going to have disagreements, even in your own staff. Whether you’re going for it or whether you don’t.
"I found that the faster you make the decision, the more you’re going to stay with the decision. Heaven-forbid you make a decision, and then they call timeout and you go, 'oh well, are we really doing the right thing', and try to talk yourself out of it."
As always, the solution to the problem probably lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Trusting instinct or a computer simulation alone won't win you games, and Pittman seemed to agree.
"We’re going to hopefully find a happy medium that when we make a decision, it works," Pittman said.
Spring practice for the Razorbacks begins Thursday morning, and Arkansas will hold 14 practices prior to the program's annual spring game on Saturday, April 13.
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