Predicting Arkansas' 2021-22 non-conference slate
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Last season I predicted the Razorbacks to go 21-5 (13-5) on the year. Because of a cancelled conference game, the Razorbacks finished the regular season 21-5 (13-4) and an Elite Eight appearance following. The final record was 27-5.
I’m going game-by-game again this season to predict the overall record for the Razorbacks for a season that has ever higher expectations than last.
I’ve already analyzed the entire non-conference schedule, which sees the Razorbacks playing a good amount of high-major competition, as well as low- and mid-major teams that return a great deal of experience and/or success.
Nov. 9 - Mercer - W
Mercer will come into Bud Walton Arena riding a winning streak against the Razorbacks. The last time the two teams met, the Bears bested the Hogs 69-66 at Simmons Bank Arena in 2015. That was six years ago, though, and the Razorback program is at a much different spot than it was then.
The Bears are looking to finish above .500 in conference play after going 8-9 in the Southern Conference last season, while Arkansas is riding the heels of an Elite Eight appearance and striving for more. Coach Greg Gary does have some scorers available, and a high-major transfer in Jalen Johnson, but ultimately his team just won’t have the talent or fire power to keep up with the Razorbacks. Arkansas should handle Mercer with ease.
Nov. 13 - Gardner-Webb - W
Head coach Tim Craft is looking to win 10-plus conference games in the Big South for the eighth time in nine seasons. He has cemented the Runnin’ Bulldogs stance as a consistent winner in the conference, including an NCAA Tournament berth, but they just are not in the same league as Arkansas.
Gardner-Webb will most likely be an improved team from last season, but with three major losses and a young roster, it is hard to see them competing with Arkansas in Fayetteville.
Nov. 17 - Northern Iowa - W
The inaugural meeting between these two programs should be a good one. Look for Northern Iowa to be the Razorbacks’ first real test of the season. The program has a history of success under head coach Ben Jacobson, entering his 16th year with the Panthers.
Last year’s record is not indicative of the team’s talent – they return over 90% of their roster from last season, including two impact guards who missed last year due to hip injury and personal COVID-related issues. A fully healthy roster that returns its top three scorers to a program with regular season and NCAA Tournament success is no team to sniff at.
The Razorbacks win by a decent margin after pulling away late. That early in the season, there will still be plenty of kinks to work out and chemistry to develop, but ultimately coaching and talent will win the day.
Additionally, the Panthers don’t have great size, as only one player in the main rotation is 6-foot-7 or taller, and he’s a back to the basket big who only occasionally steps outside to shoot. While this big – Austin Phyfe – is also their leading scorer and rebounder, Musselman can make him a non-factor. With Arkansas’s versatility and size, they will likely be able to clear Phyfe out of the lane and use the backcourt talent to penetrate and finish at the rim.
Nov. 22 - Kansas State - W
Arkansas and Kansas State are set to meet on the court for the first time in 30 years, and it’s on a neutral site for the Hall of Fame Classic. The four-team tournament includes Arkansas, Kansas State, Cincinnati, and Illinois, with the other two teams playing each other on the opposite side of the bracket.
Arkansas will face some familiar foes in this matchup, as the Wildcats added Missouri transfer Mark Smith and Little Rock transfer Markquis Nowell. Kansas State needed the extra firepower as it has combined to win 20 games over the past two seasons. In addition to Nowell and Smith, the Wildcats return four of their top five scorers.
It’s safe to say that Bruce Weber is on thin ice, but his team should be much improved and could contend for an NCAA Tournament bid. Although Weber’s teams aren’t typically known for scoring at a high clip, this season might be an exception as he has plenty of fire power to score 70-plus points per game. Outside of sophomore Nijel Pack and Nowell, the Wildcats don’t shoot the three ball well, but their roster has plenty of capable scorers and free throw shooters. The key will be stopping their guard penetration and forcing the Wildcats to win from beyond the arc, something Musselman has experience doing.
The last time Kansas State averaged 70-plus points per game for a season was 2017-18, when the Wildcats went 25-12. That year they made the Elite Eight, but was a meager 3-6 in games when they allowed their opponents to score 75-plus points. Arkansas only scored fewer than 75 points in 12 games last season and was 7-5 in those games.
It is a stretch to assume that Kansas State will increase their scoring average by 8.2 points per game over one offseason, but if they somehow do that, the record still favors Musselman.
Nov. 23 - Cincinnati - W / Illinois - W
Assuming Arkansas beats Kansas State, their next opponent is determined by whoever wins the head-to-head matchup on the other side of the bracket. Most likely that will be Illinois.
While the loss of Ayo Dosunmu to the NBA was a major blow to the Illini, they return an extremely talented trio of Andre Curbelo, Kofi Cockburn and Trent Frazier. They return some key role players and add a pair of four-star recruits, as well.
It is reasonable to expect Illinois to take a step back after last season and losing Dosunmu, but so much is returning that it is hard to imagine that. The biggest area of concern in replacing Dosunmu isn’t making up his 20.1 points per game – players will find points in this offense, especially playing a bigger role – but rather his creating ability. Dosunmu led the team in assists with 5.3 per game and was second in steals with 1.1 per game.
Even returning their star trio and a couple of role players, it’s difficult to see freshmen stepping in right away and playing at a level necessary to help make up for that loss, whereas Arkansas is a roster full of experienced players who have contributed in a big way either for the Razorbacks or their previous program.
Regardless, Illinois is different than Kansas State. They can defend, allowing well under 70 points per game each of the last two seasons, and are coming off a year where they averaged 80.5 points per game. It is reasonable to think that after losing Dosunmu and starter Adam Miller that the Illini might score fewer points, but not a drastic amount. If this game does end up being a high scoring affair, the advantage goes to Musselman. In games where both teams scored 75-plus points, Musselman was 7-2 last year while Illinois head coach Brad Underwood was 4-3.
After going back on this for a while, I give the slightest edge to Arkansas. And if Arkansas can matchup with and beat Illinois, it can do the same with Cincinnati.
Nov. 28 - Penn - W
Penn will have a competitive basketball team after not playing in the 2020-21 season to comply with Ivy League guidelines amid the pandemic. As a result of them not playing, it is hard to imagine what kind of roster the Quakers will bring to Fayetteville. They return some quality players from a couple years ago, added a JUCO All-American and some high school freshmen. While they might have experience and one could assume chemistry, it is unlikely they possess the speed or talent to take on Arkansas at home and win.
Dec. 1 - Central Arkansas - W
The Razorbacks start their back-to-back in-state slate against the UCA Bears. Former Razorback Darious Hall is now in Conway playing for the Bears, and head coach Anthony Boone returns four key pieces to hopefully take a step forward in the Southland, but they will be completely outmatched by the Razorbacks.
Dec. 4 - Little Rock - W
Outside of Kansas State and Illinois or Cincinnati, Little Rock could be one of the toughest non-conference opponents the Razorbacks face this season as head coach Darrell Walker looks to get his program back on track. He returns size and scoring with Nikola Maric and Marko Lukic, as well as improving the locker room with the departure of Markquis Nowell.
The Trojans have the talent on the roster to be near the top of the Sun Belt again, which, paired with their size and scoring ability, could make things interesting for the Razorbacks. As long as Musselman can minimize the interior scoring ability of Maric and Lukic, the Hogs should win handily, as the Trojan offense flows through their ability to score.
Dec. 7 - Charlotte - W
Arkansas just needs to focus on stopping Jahmir Young and Austin Butler. Outside of those two, the 49ers return some experience but not many scoring threats. This should be an easy victory.
Dec. 11 - Oklahoma - W
The Sooners will come in with a new head coach after legendary coach Lon Kruger retired. Oklahoma tabbed Porter Moser as its guy, and now he looks to take over and maintain a successful basketball program.
With the addition of guys like Tanner Groves and Marvin Johnson, as well as returning Elijah Harkless and Umoja Gibson, Moser should have plenty of talent to work with. They also add four-star freshman CJ Noland and Duke transfer Jordan Goldwire.
Moser’s style of play worked wonders in Chicago, but it remains to be seen if that system will work on a regular basis in a major conference, or if this first team has the right pieces top to bottom to run. On the surface, Groves and Johnson are perfect fits for the heavy emphasis on ball movement and defense, and the team will likely build around those two.
Their biggest issue comes against teams who are elite offensively, which Arkansas is knocking on the door of with all its firepower. Musselman has proven he can win low-scoring contests, while Moser has proven he struggles against high-scoring opponents. Over the past two seasons, Moser is 0-5 when opposing teams scoring 75-plus points. Last season, Arkansas scored fewer than 75 points just 12 times and went 7-5 in those games. That 75-point line is something to keep an eye on, but regardless I think Arkansas pulls this one out on a neutral floor by close to 10.
Dec. 18 - Hofstra - W
Hofstra is another one of those programs that flies under the radar for most casual college basketball fans, but has been consistently pretty good. With longtime head coach Joe Mihalich moving into an administrative role in the athletics department, the Pride are set for a new era under Speedy Claxton.
Claxton played for Hofstra from 1996-2000 and had been a part of the staff for the previous eight years before being promoted to head coach for this season. The team returns three of their top five scorers from a year ago, and adds some quality newcomers like Oregon transfer Aaron Estrada, Arkansas transfer Abayomi Iyiola and Iowa State transfer Darlinstone Dubar.
The Pride have a good shot at again competing at the top of the CAA after winning it two of the past three years. Despite the returning players and new talent, they will not be able to keep up with the talent and speed of Arkansas.
Dec. 21 - Elon - W
Another team returning a wealth of experience that could make some noise in their conference, Elon returns three of their top four scorers and had only two senior departures from last season.
If Jerald Gillens-Butler is healthy and playing at the same level as he was pre-injury, he could be a problem. At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, the former Butler Bulldog shined in three games last season before being out with injury. In those three games, Elon was 3-0 and Butler averaged 15.7 points and 5.3 rebounds.
Additionally, Hunter McIntosh can fill out a stat sheet, as he led the team in scoring with 15.7 points per game and is a career 38.4% shooter from behind the arc.
Stopping those two on the perimeter is imperative, but the favorable matchup for the Razorbacks is in size. Only four players on the entire Phoenix roster are 6-foot-7 or taller, and only one of those was a key rotational piece last season. With the Razorbacks having a wealth of tall wings and versatile post players, it should be easy sledding for Arkansas in the paint and in mismatches.
Official prediction: 12-0
The more I dug into the numbers, the more I liked Arkansas to win these big, out of conference matchups. Is it bold to say Arkansas will be 12-0 going into SEC play? Absolutely. But there are ample reasons to reasonably believe it will happen, so long as the team stays healthy.
There is still one more non-conference matchup for the season against West Virginia, but I will make the prediction for that game along with the conference slate since it falls in the middle of SEC play.
If this does indeed happen, and Arkansas enters SEC play 12-0, the Razorbacks should be firmly in the top 10 and probably even the top 5.