PREVIEW: Hogs hosting top-10 Florida with SEC title at stake

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The final weekend of the regular season is upon us, as Arkansas welcomes Florida to Baum-Walker Stadium for a three-game series. Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup with the Gators…

Schedule (TV)

Thursday, May 20 - 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Friday, May 21 - 7 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Saturday, May 22 - 2 p.m. CT (SECN+/SEC Network Alternate)

The first two games of the series will be nationally televised on the SEC Network. Despite what the network said last weekend, the third game is still scheduled to be streamed on SEC Network-Plus, meaning it can be watched online on ESPN3.com or the ESPN app with a cable provider’s log-in credentials.

(UPDATE: The third game of the series appears it'll be televised on the SEC Network Alternate channel.)

Weather Report

The forecast for Thursday's game doesn't look encouraging, as the Weather Channel gives a 69 percent chance of thunderstorms at the scheduled first pitch time. The rain is expected to continue through the night.

However, it appears the rain will move out of the area by Friday morning. Although it'll be cloudy, there is no more than a 25 percent chance of rain beginning at 7 a.m. and throughout the rest of the day, with temperatures in the 70s. That would make a doubleheader possible if Arkansas and Florida can't play Thursday.

There is a slight chance of rain Saturday, but just a 14 percent chance during the day, and the high is 81 degrees, so the weather for the series finale seems promising - albeit a bit windy (10-15 mph winds out of the south-southeast).

Arkansas’ Starting Rotation (2021 stats)

Thursday - Jr. LHP Patrick Wicklander (13 games/9 starts, 4-1, 1.93 ERA, 60 K/16 BB, 56 IP)

Friday - R-Jr. RHP Caleb Bolden (14 games/7 starts, 2-0, 4.67 ERA, 33 K/18 BB, 34 2/3 IP)

Saturday - TBA

Head coach Dave Van Horn is switching up the weekend rotation once again, moving Bolden into the Game 2 slot after a strong showing at Tennessee and leaving Game 3 as TBA.

The most likely starters for the third game are right-hander Peyton Pallette (1-2, 4.09 ERA) and left-hander Lael Lockhart (2-2, 4.53 ERA), but both are also available out of the bullpen if needed to win one of the first two games.

For a more extensive breakdown of the Razorbacks’ pitching situation for the Florida series, click here.

In the Polls

For the sixth straight week, Arkansas is the unanimous No. 1 team in college baseball. As the top-ranked team in all six major polls, it is also No. 1 in the Rivals Composite Poll.

Since beginning the year as the unanimous preseason No. 1 team, Florida has faltered a bit, but has gotten back on track in recent weeks and finds itself back up to No. 8 in this week’s Composite Poll.

Scouting the Opponent

Record: 35-16 (17-10 SEC)

RPI: No. 19

Head coach: Kevin O’Sullivan (14th season)

Series history: tied 32-32

Florida’s starting rotation (2021 stats)

Thursday - Jr. RHP Tommy Mace (13 games/12 starts, 5-0, 4.40 ERA, 93 K/15 BB, 75 2/3 IP)

Friday - Fr. LHP Hunter Barco (13 games/13 starts, 9-2, 4.13 ERA, 84 K/22 BB, 69 2/3 IP)

Saturday - Jr. RHP Franco Aleman (20 games/7 starts, 1-3, 5.26 ERA, 50 K/17 BB, 53 IP)

Florida’s top hitters (2021 stats)

~CF Jud Fabian: .267/.383/.634, 20 HR, 46 RBI

~LF Jacob Young: .313/.393/.442, 3 HR, 35 RBI

~C Nathan Hickey: .309/.436/.529, 8 HR, 47 RBI

Notes and Tidbits

~This will be the fifth top-10 series for Arkansas this season. It has previously swept Mississippi State and won two of three against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee. All four of those series were on the road and that doesn’t include the three neutral-site wins over Texas Tech, Texas and TCU at the very beginning of the season.

~Similar to Arkansas’ Robert Moore, Florida center fielder Jud Fabian skipped his senior season to enroll early. His freshman year with he Gators was in 2019 and now a junior, after a slow start to the season, has started to heat up in recent weeks. He has hit multiple home runs in each of Florida’s last four SEC series, including multi-homer games against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia, and is slugging .981 over his past 15 SEC games. Fabian’s 20 total home runs are tied with South Carolina’s Wes Clarke and Florida State’s Matheu Nelson for the most nationally.

~Since the calendar flipped to May, Florida catcher Nathan Hickey has really struggled at the plate. He’s had multi-hit games against Stetson and Kentucky over that span, but is hitless in the other eight games. The 4-for-40 stretch has dropped his batting average from .364 to .309 and he comes into the Arkansas series hitless in his last 15 at bats.

~Much like the Razorbacks, the Gators have tinkered with their starting rotation all season. They are using the same one as last week against Georgia, but it will be just the second time they’ve used those three pitchers in that particular order this year.

~Right-hander Jack Leftwich began the season in Florida rotation, but has since evolved into the closer. He has pitched at least twice in each of the Gators’ last four SEC series, including pitching 4 2/3 total innings against Georgia last week and closing all three games at Kentucky the week before that.

What’s at Stake

All Arkansas needs to clinch at least a share of the SEC West title and a top-two seed in the SEC Tournament is one win over Florida or one loss by Mississippi State against Alabama. If both of those things happen - or the Razorbacks win twice or the Bulldogs lose twice - then Arkansas would secure the outright SEC West title.

The scenarios for Arkansas to clinch the overall SEC title can be more complicated because there are still three SEC East teams alive in that race, but the easiest one is for it to win at least two games against Florida. That would guarantee at least a share of the overall title with Tennessee, which would need to sweep South Carolina to tie the Razorbacks - who own the tiebreaker and would get the No. 1 seed in that scenario.

The series to keep an eye on this week, in addition to Florida at Arkansas, are Tennessee at South Carolina, Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky and Mississippi State at Alabama.

For a more complete picture of what the SEC race looks like, click here.

Quotable

Van Horn, on his scouting report of Florida:

“Florida is probably the most talented team in the country on paper. That’s what we’ve been told. People tell us how good they are and we know that we have our hands full with Florida.”

Van Horn, on Florida’s pitching staff:

“Their overall staff as a whole is dynamic. I mean, they’ve got a little bit of everything. They got left, right, they’ve got sinkers, sliders, changeups, location guys. They can bring a little bit of everything at you.”

Van Horn, on Florida’s strengths:

“They have a lot of options, a lot of weapons. I think that’s probably the strength of their team, is they have options offensively and if some guys aren’t getting it done, they can go to the next two or three and they’re just as good. The same on the mound.”

Van Horn, on Florida slugger Jud Fabian:

“It’s hard to pitch to him because he obviously hits good pitches that are strikes, but he also will go out of the zone and drive it. He has tremendous bat speed. When the bat makes contact with the ball, it jumps. When you see him physically, he’s not a real big guy, but he’s got some serious power.”

O’Sullivan, on facing Arkansas:

“We’ve still got a lot to play for. We’re right in the middle of this thing. Obviously, it’ll be a great challenge to play Arkansas at their place. At the end of the day if we want to get to the final destination and have an opportunity to play for a National Championship we’re going to have to play Arkansas and teams like Arkansas. It’s a great opportunity for us.”

Stat of the Week

Coming into the weekend, Arkansas’ pitching staff has combined for 499 strikeouts this season. That is already 10th on the school’s single-season list, but with three games against Florida, the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament looming, it could quickly climb that list.

In fact, at their current pace of 10.2 strikeouts per game, the Razorbacks could reach 600 strikeouts during the regionals. Not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, they’ve reached that mark in each of the last three seasons.

Arkansas broke the school record with 619 strikeouts in 2017 and then matched it the following year. In 2019, it nearly did it again, finishing just shy with 615. The previous record of 565 strikeouts was set in 2007.

Only two other Division I programs have had 600-plus strikeouts in each of the last three seasons: Florida State and Louisville. Already with 546 strikeouts, the Seminoles look primed to continue that streak, but the Cardinals have work to do with only 405.

HR Tracker

Although the Razorbacks didn’t hit one in the series finale, they did hit a pair of home runs in each of the first two games at Tennessee. They now have 83 long balls for the season, which is tied with the 2017 team for the fifth most in UA history and currently ranks third nationally behind Mercer (87) and Old Dominion (86).

Arkansas is still tracking ahead of the pace set by the 2018 team, which hit a school-record 98 home runs. That year, the Razorbacks had only 75 home runs through 49 games and they didn’t hit their 83rd until the 56th game.