Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 7 games in 2020
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FAYETTEVILLE -- For the first time since the preseason, Arkansas is actually favored to win a game by ESPN's Football Power Index.
Despite a heartbreaking loss to No. 13 Auburn last week, the Razorbacks actually saw their odds of winning increase for each of their remaining seven games this season.
That includes a massive jump for Saturday's game against Ole Miss, which went up by 12.7 percentage points. Arkansas now has a 57.4 percent chance to beat the Rebels, according to the FPI.
The only other time the FPI has given the Razorbacks more than a 50 percent chance in any game was in the preseason, when they were slight favorites - 50.5% - at Mississippi State. That was cut in half after the Bulldogs knocked off LSU in Week 1, but Arkansas still won that matchup earlier this month.
As you can see in the first chart below, the Razorbacks have a near toss-up at Missouri, with increasing odds in each of the other games.
Those increases have actually led to higher likelihoods of better records for Arkansas, as seen in the second chart. Although 3-7 is still the most likely record, it now has a better chance of finishing 4-6 than 2-8.
The Razorbacks also now have a 94.7 percent chance of winning at least one more game, which would hit the over on their 1.5 win total set by Vegas.
| Game | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
Oct. 17 - Ole Miss |
57.4% |
+12.7% |
|
Oct. 31 - at Texas A&M |
29.7% |
+4.2% |
|
Nov. 7 - Tennessee |
36.8% |
+5.5% |
|
Nov. 14 - at Florida |
13.9% |
+4.6% |
|
Nov. 21 - LSU |
30.9% |
+12.2% |
|
Nov. 28 - at Missouri |
48.8% |
+0.1% |
|
Dec. 5 - Alabama |
8.1% |
+3.0% |
| Record | Likelihood | Change since last week |
|---|---|---|
|
8-2 |
0.011% |
+0.0029% |
|
7-3 |
0.27% |
+0.12% |
|
6-4 |
2.53% |
+1.13% |
|
5-5 |
11.20% |
+4.02% |
|
4-6 |
26.26% |
+5.42% |
|
3-7 |
33.22% |
-0.41% |
|
2-8 |
21.20% |
-6.54% |
|
1-9 |
5.30% |
-3.75 |
