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FAYETTEVILLE -- Arkansas proved ESPN's Football Power Index should have stuck with its preseason projection last week.
Before the SEC opened play late last month, the Razorbacks had a 50.5 percent chance to beat Mississippi State. It was the lone game on their schedule in which they were the favorite.
Following a season-opening loss to Georgia and coupled with the Bulldogs' upset win at LSU to begin this season, Arkansas' odds were cut in half.
It didn't matter, though, as the Razorbacks went into Starkville and knocked off No. 16 Mississippi State 21-14 to end their longest conference losing streak in school history at 20 games.
Not only does the victory ensure Arkansas avoids its first ever winless season - as illustrated in the bottom graph below - but it also gave it a boost for its remaining games in the FPI.
As seen in the first chart below, the Razorbacks saw their odds of winning increase for each of their remaining eight games this season. Some of the increases were dramatic, with the Missouri and Ole Miss games becoming virtual toss-ups.
Gamblers who took the over on Arkansas' 1.5 win total are also probably feeling pretty good, as the chances of that bet hitting have increased to nearly 91 percent (first graph).
The most likely record for Arkansas now is 3-7, which has a 33.6 percent chance of happening. The second-most likely mark is 2-8 (27.7%), but a four-win season isn't out of the realm of possibility. The odds of that happening have nearly doubled since the preseason (11.1% to 20.8%).
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