Another ugly offensive performance doomed the Razorbacks in a 38-31 loss to the BYU Cougars Saturday evening.
Penalties, ineffective offensive line play and poor in-game coaching decisions spelled disaster down the stretch for Arkansas and ultimately proved fatal in the game's outcome.
Following the defeat, the Hogs dropped for the third straight week in one of ESPN's top predictive metrics for college football.
After suffering a seven-point drop all the way down to No. 35 following a 56-13 victory in Week 1 over the Western Carolina Catamounts and a one-point drop to No. 36 after a win against the Kent State Golden Flashes in Week 2, the Razorbacks fell six more spots to No. 42 off the back of the loss to BYU in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) this week.
The defense, despite allowing 38 points, wasn't to blame for the team's loss. The unit was put in less-than-ideal situations after turnovers, bad punts and a failed fourth-down conversion.
Head coach Sam Pittman’s squad now has a 5.3-6.7 projected win total with a 43.9% chance of obtaining six wins during the season. On top of that, Arkansas has just a 0.4% (0.4% decrease from last week) chance of winning the SEC West and a 0% chance of the entire SEC, according to the FPI.
After three weeks of football, Arkansas dropped down to No. 76 in the country in efficiency rankings after being as high as No. 40 last week, according to ESPN. This includes a 33.6 (No. 98) offensive rating.
The defensive rating also fell from 83.5 (No. 17) last week to 68.1 (No. 44) this week. Special teams was the only unit to increase its rating, rising from 41.3 (No. 87) in Week 2 to 51.2 (No. 71) after the BYU game.
Compared to the rest of the SEC, the Razorbacks come in at No. 13 (No. 10 last week) in the FPI just above Vanderbilt. The Hogs don't look much better in the efficiency department, slotting in at No. 11 (No. 8 last week) in the SEC above Vanderbilt.
There's enough of a sample size now for questions and concerns to be validated about this Arkansas team, and it isn't getting any easier as the season continues.
A four-game stretch against LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama will say a lot about where the program is under head coach Sam Pittman and whether or not he's capable of fixing the issues at hand.
Going into a Week 4 matchup against the LSU Tigers — a team that ranks No. 9 in the FPI and No. 19 in efficiency rating (80.7) — the Razorbacks will be facing their most difficult opponent by far.
Arkansas and LSU are set for a 6:00 p.m. CT kickoff Saturday at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. The game will be televised on ESPN.
