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The SEC’s announcement of a March 6 slate of games Thursday afternoon kept Arkansas’ hopes of overtaking Alabama for the conference championship alive, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
If both teams play each of their three remaining games with no postponements, the Razorbacks could surpass the Crimson Tide in the standings by running the table and Alabama losing out.
In that scenario, Arkansas would end the season with a 13-4 record - half of a game ahead of the Crimson Tide’s 13-5 mark. However, if either team loses a game to COVID-19, the Razorbacks would be mathematically eliminated from title contention.
Without factoring in the threat of postponements - which is always looming, especially with Texas A&M being one of Arkansas’ opponents - it is highly unlikely Arkansas catches Alabama.
The Razorbacks have a manageable three-game stretch to end the regular season, hosting LSU on Saturday, traveling to South Carolina on Tuesday and then playing a makeup game against the Aggies on March 6.
According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, they have a 44.3 percent chance of winning all three games. It’s actually their most likely record over the stretch, followed closely by a 42.4 percent chance of going 2-1.
While that isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibility, Alabama losing all three of its games would be quite surprising. It plays at Mississippi State on Saturday, hosts Auburn on Tuesday and then wraps up the regular season at Georgia on the March 6 makeup date.
The Crimson Tide are favored in all three games, with at least a 64 percent chance of winning each of them, according to the BPI. The metric gives them just a 1.3 percent chance of going 0-3 over that stretch.
That means the chances of each scenario happening - Arkansas going 3-0 (44.3 percent) and Alabama going 0-3 (1.3 percent) - are just 0.6 percent, or about 1 in 167.
While the odds of catching the Crimson Tide for the regular-season title are slim, Arkansas controls its own destiny when it comes to finishing second in the conference.
The Razorbacks have a one-game lead over LSU for second place going into Saturday’s games and would put even more distance between themselves and the rest of the pack with a win over the Tigers.
However, with three games remaining, an uneven number of games played and the seeding likely to come down to winning percentage this year, there are numerous seeding scenarios still in play for Arkansas.
Those will come more into focus following Saturday’s slate of games, which includes Arkansas hosting LSU at 1 p.m. CT on ESPN2.
