Underdogs make college football, and — despite pleas for change from Arkansas football fans — the Razorbacks have lived on that side of the coin for over a decade.
There have been glimpses of a trend reversal sprinkled in over the years, most notably in Sam Pittman's 9-4 (4-4 SEC) 2021 season, but an 0-4 record against ranked teams last year has the Hogs back on a downwards swing ahead of a monumental 2024 campaign.
Can the Razorbacks overcome the obstacles and get over the hump as underdogs in a do-or-die season for Pittman? HawgBeat attempts to answer that question, with breakdowns of five potential upsets that range from least to most likely.
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~ Ranking Arkansas' toughest road games in 2024
Note: Career stats listed for all players below.
5. Nov. 16: Arkansas vs. Texas
The Quarterback: Jr. Quinn Ewers - 22 GP, 37 TD, 12 INT, 5,656 YDS, 64.0% PCT COMP
The Gamebreaker: Jr. WR Isaiah Bond - 27 GP, 65 REC, 888 YDS, 5 TD
Defensive Star: So. LB Anthony Hill Jr. - 14 GP, 67 TOT, 8.0 TFL, 5.0 SKS, 2 PD, FF
Oh, how things have changed in three short years. Not long ago, Reynolds Razorback Stadium was at maximum capacity for an Arkansas blowout over a ranked Texas squad in 2021. Now, the Longhorns are vying for a College Football Playoff spot while the Hogs are trying to stay out of the SEC basement.
According to early odds by BetSaracen, Arkansas is a +550 underdog to Texas and for good reason. Returning for the Burnt Orange is signal caller Ewers, a record-book climber who completed 69.0% of his throws in 2023. Former Alabama transfer wideout Bond and star-in-the-making running back CJ Baxter help form a deadly offense that the Hogs must stop.
Per Bill Connelly's post-spring SP+ rankings (a predictive comparison of teams), Texas comes in at No. 4 while Arkansas sits at No. 46. Those rankings account for returning production, recent recruiting and recent history according to Connelly, so it's a good indication of why this is the least likely upset for the Hogs in 2024.
It should be noted that Texas plays Florida a week before its tilt against Arkansas, while the Razorbacks have a bye week to rest. The extra prep time certainly isn't enough to sway the odds, but don't discount what an extra week can do for a team.
With one of the best transfer portal hauls of the offseason (including headliners like UTSA pass-rusher Trey Moore, Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba, Louisville defensive tackle Jermayne Lole and Houston wide receiver Matthew Golden), Arkansas will need everything clicking and momentum on its side when the Longhorns visit Fayetteville mid-November.
