Razorbacks' chances to advance in each stage of the NCAA tournament
HawgBeat's coverage of Arkansas's journey in the 2021 NCAA tournament is present by Wright's Barbecue. Already serving up the best meats in Arkansas, you can now also find Wright's meat rub and sauces at Walmart.
Using a prediction model that incorporates computer generated rankings like KenPom, Sagarin and ESPN's BPI, and human rankings like the AP top 25 poll, 538 has been predicting NCAA men's hoops teams path through the Big Dance since 2011.
There are plenty of prediction models out there but 538 uses a composite of all the data and refreshes their model with new information between rounds, keeping it relevant as team's progress through each stage.
The Arkansas Razorbacks currently have the 18th highest chance to win out–but with a measly 1.03% chance. As the second-highest ranked team in the SEC, Arkansas is naturally behind Alabama, which has a 7% chance to make it to the final game and a 3% chance to win it all.
In round one versus 14-seed Colgate, 538 gives the Hogs a 76% chance to advance, which is the worst among 3-seeds, a group that includes Texas, Kansas and West Virginia. This tracks with ESPN's piece from Monday that gave Colgate the third best chance at being one of the round one "giant killers," due to their all-around shooting ability.
If Arkansas passes Colgate in round one, they'll face No. 6 Texas Tech or No. 11 Utah State, which currently has a 33% chance at an upset. Razorbacks are given a 40.3% chance at beating one of those two opponents.
With Ohio State ranking 6th among teams to make it to the Sweet 16, this is where Arkansas would run into their first underdog matchup. 538 gives Arkansas just a 19% chance to win and advance to the Elite 8, which is the same as Ohio State has of making it to the Final Four, so odds are clearly not in the Hogs' favor.
If Arkansas does beat Ohio State then their chances to make it to the Final Four is 7%, which is 14th best among all tournament teams.
Teams with the highest chance to win it all:
Gonzaga - 27%
Illinois - 15%
Baylor - 13%
Iowa - 6%
Houston - 5%
Michigan - 4%
Ohio State - 4%
Alabama - 3%
Virginia - 2%
Kansas - 2%
Team with lowest seed w/ highest chance to win:
No. 9 Wisconsin - 1.1% (first round opponent - UNC)
Looking to bet on the Hogs? Here are some BetUS moneylines:
NCAA champions +6000
Win the South region +850 (third behind Baylor (even), Ohio State +350)
Beat Colgate -420
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