This Arkansas roster is built to provide a new look defensively
It has been well-documented that this season's Razorback basketball team will not only be the most talented under head coach Eric Musselman, but also the tallest and longest.
In looking at player sizes, styles, and statistics, I ended up coming up with team stats and individual player stats for this roster. Those numbers indicated that the typical strong defense - a staple of Arkansas basketball under Musselman - will be different, but in a good way.
The Baseline - Points Allowed
One area that might not necessarily drastically change will be points allowed. In two of the three seasons under Musselman, the Razorbacks have allowed fewer than 70 points per game on average. The exception was 2020-2021, when the team allowed 70.8 points per game. For reference, in the ten years before Musselman took over as head coach the Razorbacks only allowed fewer than 70 points per game three times. In that decade, the game has evolved and teams are scoring at a higher clip which makes the number even more impressive.
While the defense will be improved, the team will likely play at a fast pace, making it difficult to hold opponents to a significantly lesser number of points with more possessions going around. Even if opponents shoot lower percentages and turn the ball over, they may have more opportunities due to the anticipated fast pace.
Where Things Get Different
That’s pretty much where the similarities in good defenses under Muss will end.
Muss went out of his way to recruit height in the transfer portal - and not just height, but height en mas. Musselman landed four transfer bigs - Makhel Mitchell, Makhi Mitchell, Jalen Graham and Trevon Brazile - each with their own unique skill sets.
The biggest shift this season defensively will be in rim protection. Musselman teams at Arkansas have ranged from 3.9 blocks per game (first season) to 4.9 blocks per game (second season). Last season the team averaged 4.1.
It has not been a staple of the program and it hasn’t exactly been an “issue” as Musselman and staff place an emphasis on contesting shots in the paint, but in assembling this roster they've managed to incorporate size and rim protection.
In particular, the trio of the Mitchell twins and Brazile have blocked their fair share of shots in college already.
Makhel Mitchell, the best interior defensive presence on the roster, averaged a whopping 2.4 blocks per game in just 26.5 minutes per game. That was good enough for him to rank inside the top 25 in the country for blocked shots, and that 2.4 average is 0.6 higher than the next closest Razorback under Muss (Connor Vanover in 2020-2021).
Brazile added 1.9 blocks of his own in just 21.5 minutes of playing time as a true freshman, landing him in the top 50 in blocks per game in the country as well. Makhi Mitchell, even as an inside-out, versatile post player, averaged 1.4 blocks per game, which would be good enough for second-highest in the Musselman era.
Those three aren’t the only potential shot-blockers either, as incoming freshmen Jordan Walsh and Anthony Black have both proven they can alter shots against good competition as well.
Walsh is simply an athletic freak with great instincts and timing, and being 6-foot-7 with his vertical leaping ability will make it a challenge for anybody to shoot over him. Black, on the other hand, is also 6-foot-7 and athletic, but his blocks will come from guarding smaller defenders and challenging them at the rim.
Stats and tendencies don’t guarantee results, but there are enough athletes and shot blockers on the roster to reasonably think that this team will average the most blocks per game under Musselman by a pretty wide margin.
It’s not just the size in the frontcourt, though. The backcourt and wings will also have incredible length.
In the three years under Musselman, Arkansas has finished with 7.9, 7.8, and 7.6 steals per game, slightly decreasing each year. Having a team this season with more length than ever before, strong defenders and a coach that emphasizes defense, steal numbers should increase as well, likely landing around the 8.5+ mark. That would coincide with forcing more turnovers as a team, also.
Despite being a good defensive team last season, the 2021-2022 team forced the fewest turnovers of any Musselman-led Razorback squad with just 14.8 per game. Furthering the reasoning above, the forced turnovers will also likely be the highest of the Musselman era.
The last area where things will be different is defensive rebounding. In the last two seasons, the Razorbacks have held their own in the defensive rebounding category averaging 27.9 per game in 2020-2021 and 27.0 in 2021-2022.
Arguably the first problem the staff tried to address and fix at the helm, those numbers were much improved from the 24.1 defensive rebounds per game and net negative rebounding margin in 2019-2020.
Against Duke in the Elite Eight last season, Arkansas was thoroughly outmatched on the interior. The Blue Devils had more size, more height, and were more physical inside, leading to their plus-nine rebounding margin and seven offensive rebounds.
Musselman’s response was to land these four bigs. The blocks and overall rim protection will be nice additions, but the biggest factor in landing these four players was their ability to close out possessions on the glass.
Outside of forward Jaylin Williams last season, the Razorbacks did not have a consistent rebounder who could close out possessions. Makhi Mitchell averaged 7.3 total rebounds with 5.6 defensive rebounds per game last season. His twin brother Makhel averaged 5.6 and 4.6. Brazile averaged 5.1 and 3.8 while Graham was at a solid 4.6 and 3.3.
The only players that produced close to those numbers on last year’s team other than Williams were JD Notae (4.6 total, 4.0 defensive), Au’Diese Toney (5.2, 2.9) and Stanley Umude (4.6, 3.5).
The new look Arkansas defense will close out more possessions, block more shots, and generate more steals and turnovers on paper. If that holds true through an entire basketball season, Razorback fans might witness one of the greatest defensive teams in program history.