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Published Sep 4, 2019
Update: ESPN FPI projects Arkansas' remaining 11 games
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Andrew Hutchinson  •  HawgBeat
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As uninspiring as it was to its fan base, Arkansas' season-opening win was even less inspiring to computer projections for the rest of the year.

The Razorbacks squeaked by with a 20-13 win over Portland State on Saturday to begin the 2019 season. They were heavy favorites in ESPN's Football Power Index, given a 97.9 percent chance in the preseason to win the game, and the close victory is reflected in the updated projections for their remaining 11 games.

The chart below details those projections, most of which have dramatically shifted in favor of Arkansas' opponents.

Western Kentucky and Missouri - which suffered disappointing losses to UCA and Wyoming, respectively, in Week 1 - had the smallest increase in their likelihood to beat the Razorbacks.

The only other opponents who saw an increase of less than five percentage points in their chances to beat Arkansas were Alabama and LSU, which were already massive favorites.

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
GameLikelihoodChange since preseason

Sept. 7 - at Ole Miss

19.8%

-6.8%

Sept. 14 - Colorado St.

76.8%

-5.6%

Sept. 21 - San Jose St.

80.6%

-6.4%

Sept. 28 - vs. Texas A&M

7.5%

-5.3%

Oct. 12 - at Kentucky

13.4%

-12.0%

Oct. 19 - Auburn

8.0%

-6.5%

Oct. 26 - at Alabama

1.2%

-1.3%

Nov. 2 - Mississippi St.

16.7%

-5.3%

Nov. 9 - Western Kentucky

77.1%

-0.5%

Nov. 23 - at LSU

2.1%

-3.7%

Nov. 29 - Missouri (LR)

24.6%

-0.5%

Those shifts in percentages have resulted in the Razorbacks' most likely record now being 4-8. As seen below, they have a 35.5 percent chance - or about 1 in 3 - to finish with that record.

Using the preseason projections, Arkansas was actually more likely to finish 5-7, which meant it would win at least one SEC game.

The Razorbacks' bowl chances have also been cut in half, falling from 27.0 percent to just 13.3 percent.

Arkansas' Record Projection
Column 1LikelihoodChange since preseason

12-0

0.000000079%

-0.0000054%

11-1

0.000014%

-0.00043%

10-2

0.00080%

-0.012%

9-3

0.021%

-0.16%

8-4

0.29%

-1.11%

7-5

2.33%

-4.29%

6-6

10.66%

-8.16%

5-7

27.28%

-4.11%

4-8

35.51%

+7.44%

3-9

19.11%

+7.80%

2-10

4.43%

+2.38%

1-11

0.37%

+0.22%

HawgBeat will update these figures as they adjust throughout the season.