Using ESPN's FPI to make over/under win total bets on 10-game SEC slates
SEC football is upon us. In just two days, the best conference in college football will finally get underway with the 2020 season.
That means fans have only a little more time to lock in their bets on whether teams will go over or under the win totals set in Las Vegas.
Considering Thursdays are when HawgBeat typically takes an updated look at Arkansas’ week-by-week projections in ESPN’s Football Power Index and those numbers haven’t changed much since examining the preseason odds earlier this month, we decided to take a fresh look at another angle of the FPI that we first touched on back in May because the SEC has since gone to 10-game, conference-only schedules.
Using the FPI’s projections, HawgBeat was able to crunch the numbers and determine its confidence in each SEC team hitting the over or under. The results - using the win totals posted on Bovada - are in the chart below and listed in order of confidence.
For example, Arkansas has a 71.9 percent chance to win at least two games and go over the 1.5 win total it was given. The Razorbacks’ odds of hitting the over are plus-130, which means a $100 bet would yield $130 in winnings. (The winnings listed in the chart below are all based on a $100 bet.)
It’s also worth noting the odds of winning exactly the number of games in Bovada’s win totals - resulting in a push - is included in the FPI confidence percentage. For example, Ole Miss has a 36.7 percent chance to win three or fewer games and a 30.0 percent chance to win exactly four, which is how we came up with the 66.7 percent in the confidence column. (You wouldn’t win any money if the Rebels go 4-6, but you also wouldn’t lose money.)
To get an idea of how accurate the FPI is when it comes to predicting the over/under, we looked back at last year’s preseason projections.
It was correct for only six of the teams, with one push, so you would have lost money if you bet on every team using the FPI. However, if you bet on only the seven most confident picks by the FPI - or the top half of the conference - you would have had much different results.
Those picks went 4-2-1 and would have yielded $147.62 in winnings had you placed a $100 bet on each of them.
HawgBeat will revisit how the FPI performs after the season, but cancellations because of COVID-19 could led to some teams playing fewer than 10 games, which would mean there’s no action on their bets.
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| Team | Over/Under | FPI Projection (odds/winnings) | FPI Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Mississippi State |
4 |
UNDER (-210/$47.60) |
95.1%* |
|
Tennessee |
5 |
UNDER (+105/$105) |
89.9%* |
|
Texas A&M |
7 |
UNDER (EVEN/$100) |
88.4%* |
|
LSU |
7 |
OVER (-145/$69) |
78.3%* |
|
Vanderbilt |
1 |
OVER (+135/$135) |
78.2%* |
|
Kentucky |
5 |
UNDER (+125/$125) |
75.4%* |
|
Missouri |
2.5 |
OVER (-160/$62.50) |
73.1% |
|
Georgia |
8.5 |
UNDER (-130/$76.90) |
71.9% |
|
Arkansas |
1.5 |
OVER (+130/$130) |
71.9% |
|
Auburn |
6.5 |
OVER (-130/$76.90) |
70.6% |
|
Ole Miss |
4 |
UNDER (-115/$87) |
66.7%* |
|
Alabama |
8.5 |
OVER (-160/$62.50) |
63.5% |
|
Florida |
7.5 |
OVER (-145/$69) |
54.0% |
|
South Carolina |
3.5 |
OVER (-130/$76.90) |
50.7% |