Arkansas Razorbacks receive boost in ESPN Football Power Index update, now favored vs. Mississippi Bulldogs
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Arkansas receives boost in ESPN FPI update, now favored in 1 game

ESPN's Football Power Index still doesn't have high expectations for Arkansas in 2020.
ESPN's Football Power Index still doesn't have high expectations for Arkansas in 2020. (Arkansas Athletics)

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In the latest update to ESPN's Football Power Index, things are starting to trend in Arkansas' favor ever so slightly.

Just a few weeks ago, the Razorbacks were considered underdogs in all 10 games this season, but they are now given a 50.5 percent chance to beat Mississippi State in Week 2.

Even though that game is still a virtual toss-up, it's 3.1 percentage points higher than it was when HawgBeat broke down the game-by-game projections on Aug. 18.

That's the largest jump of any game, but Arkansas' chances against Missouri and LSU have also gone up by 2.9 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively.

It's unclear exactly what changed to cause that movement, but LSU having several key players - most notably wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase - opt out of the season likely had something to do with that game.

Only two games shifted in favor of Arkansas' opponent: Ole Miss' odds went up by 1.8 percentage points and Alabama's increased by 0.5 percentage points.

Here is a breakdown of the latest percentages for each game from the FPI...

Arkansas' Game-by-Game Projections
Game FPI odds Change since Aug. 18

Sept. 26 - Georgia

8.9%

+0.1%

Oct. 3 - at Miss. State

50.5%

+3.1%

Oct. 10 - at Auburn

7.1%

+1.0%

Oct. 17 - Ole Miss

40.3%

-1.8%

Oct. 31 - at Texas A&M

11.7%

+1.9%

Nov. 7 - Tennessee

38.9%

+0.6%

Nov. 14 - at Florida

7.9%

+0.8%

Nov. 21 - LSU

11.4%

+2.8%

Nov. 28 - at Missouri

41.8%

+2.9%

Dec. 5 - Alabama

4.2%

-0.5%

As expected, the Razorbacks' increased chances in eight of the 10 games on the 2020 schedule have led to better record projections from the FPI.

Last month, there was a 7.2 percent chance that Arkansas would go winless. That has dropped to 6.1 percent in the latest update.

That means the Razorbacks have a 93.9 percent chance to snap their 19-game SEC losing streak at some point during the season.

The likelihood of each record - 0-10, 10-0 and everything in between - can be found in the chart below...

Arkansas' Record Projections
Record Likelihood Change since Aug. 18

10-0

0.00000093%

+0.00000048%

9-1

0.000073%

+0.000035%

8-2

0.0024%

+0.0010%

7-3

0.042%

+0.016%

6-4

0.44%

+0.13%

5-5

2.81%

+0.61%

4-6

10.91%

+1.47%

3-7

24.96%

+1.42%

2-8

32.51%

-0.58%

1-9

22.19%

-2.03%

0-10

6.14%

-1.04%

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